WesWorld

Quoted

Originally posted by AdmKuznetsov

Russia's analysis of China assumes they do not. War with China would be a grave undertaking of high cost, and benefits gained, if any, would be temporary.

As concerned as Germany is about the current expansionist tendencies of China, it's analysis is much the same. Any pre-emptive move against China would garner only short-term benefits at great military cost and with a grave risk of a political backlash at home.

Now, if China were to make a grave mistake in strategy and "pull a Pearl Harbor" on a Western power, that would be quite different. The political will to carry through to total victory would then exist on the part of the agrieved power. The opprobium of being the aggressor would rest on China.

What if its not a true "Pearl Harbor" scenario, what if say China decides to say "liberate" Hainan? Would Iberia have said political will? Will the population in Europe even care about a small island on the other side of the world?

Would the US political will have been the same had Japan not gone after Pearl Harbor and instead attacked only the Philippines?

Quoted

Originally posted by Desertfox
What if its not a true "Pearl Harbor" scenario, what if say China decides to say "liberate" Hainan? Would Iberia have said political will? Will the population in Europe even care about a small island on the other side of the world?

Would the US political will have been the same had Japan not gone after Pearl Harbor and instead attacked only the Philippines?

The latter would be difficult to say. The former, not so much: San Hainando has always been said to be solidly part of what Iberia regards as their nation - and so I think Iberia could indeed be justified as treating that as a Pearl Harbor-esque scenario.

Quoted

Originally posted by Desertfox
What if its not a true "Pearl Harbor" scenario, what if say China decides to say "liberate" Hainan? Would Iberia have said political will?

I would tend to agree with Brock that Iberia would quite likely have the political will to respond. Whether they have the means to effectively do so on their own is another matter.

Quoted

Will the population in Europe even care about a small island on the other side of the world?

That depends. Iberia's allies in AEGIS or SAER would be faced with a considerable dilemma; honor their treaty commitments or lose all credability in the international arena. I suspect that in the instance cited tha Iberia's allies would honor their commitments - now whether their war aims would match Iberia's is a different question.

Quoted

Would the US political will have been the same had Japan not gone after Pearl Harbor and instead attacked only the Philippines?

I this instance, I suspect that had the Japanese not attacked American territory at all, Congress would might not have declared war. Had the Japanese only attacked the Philippines, Congress might have declared war but the war would not have had the popular support that Pearl Harbor engendered. What made the latter particularly dastardly was the trail of Japanese dissimulation up until the time of the attack and that the Japanese failed to abide by the Western formalities of declaring war before attacking.

While the actual quotation is spurious, the line attributed to Admiral Yamamoto in "Tora, Tora, Tora" is most appropriate:

"I fear all we have done is awake a sleeping dragon and filled him with a terrible resolve."

Quoted

Originally posted by Desertfox
What if its not a true "Pearl Harbor" scenario, what if say China decides to say "liberate" Hainan? Would Iberia have said political will? Will the population in Europe even care about a small island on the other side of the world?

How about if the Native Australians (I don't like the word Aborigine) decided to liberate themselves?? Would The United Kingdom give a small rodent's nether region?

For The Iberian Federation, San Hainando is a major trading hub, loosing it would be a serious blow to the economy of the region and the Federation as a whole.
All of AEGIS would be affected, and I would imagine a fair number of other nations without direct bases of operation in the region. I would imagine support may not be a slacking as you would think, if we look at this from an economical stance.

Quoted

Originally posted by DesertfoxWould the US political will have been the same had Japan not gone after Pearl Harbor and instead attacked only the Philippines?

As Pearl wasn't a state at the time, merely a holding that proved to have a strategic value, and as The Philippines were also a US holding with a similar strategic value, I'd say yes.

Quoted

How about if the Native Australians (I don't like the word Aborigine) decided to liberate themselves?? Would The United Kingdom give a small rodent's nether region?

Many Australians felt betrayed by Britain's lack of response to the Japanese onslaught in 1941-42 - insisting on keeping Australian troops in the Middle East and failing to provide effective naval support as all pre-war planning had presumed. As Britain does not have the albatross of defending India in WW, I suppose that they would be able, and better motivated, to support the Dominion of Australia. But the question is a valid one.

Quoted

What made the latter particularly dastardly was ... the Japanese failed to abide by the Western formalities of declaring war before attacking.

The term for a "Pearl Harbor" up to 7 December 1941 was "Copenhagen".

And I recall that the US Naval Institute Press expressed admiration of the daring and audacity of the way the IJN opened the Russo-Japanese War in 1904. They certainly didn't think it was "a day that will live in infamy".

Quoted

Originally posted by AdmKuznetsov

Quoted

What made the latter particularly dastardly was ... the Japanese failed to abide by the Western formalities of declaring war before attacking.

The term for a "Pearl Harbor" up to 7 December 1941 was "Copenhagen".

And I recall that the US Naval Institute Press expressed admiration of the daring and audacity of the way the IJN opened the Russo-Japanese War in 1904. They certainly didn't think it was "a day that will live in infamy".

All too often politicians, and military observers, will took short-sightedly on something and mumble approvingly; if history teaches anything it is that what one nation does to another impacts the community of nations, and therefore the stock phrase "of no interest to us" has become meaningless.

There are some nations in WW who have not adopted that point of view, and who apparently cannot understand why Germany has.