WesWorld

Cast your mind back to the early 1930s Real-world timeline. What steps might the great powers of Western Europe have taken to deter Italy from its long-planned aggression in Abyssinia? What could be consequences of each option if implemented?

The only powers that could have brought any pressure to bear where Britain and France.

I don't think either would have wanted to risk a war to deter Italy, neither was really prepared for such an eventuality. Britain showed a good account against Italian troops in late 1940, but they had 4 extra years in which to plan the defence of Egypt and offensive operations into Libya.
France with a land border would probably have been less inclined to push Italy to war, but on the other hand Italy wasn't exactly a military superpower and wasn't prepared for a peer conflict so would be unlikely to declare war unless seriously provoked.

The economic sanctions didn't really deter Mussolini. Two actions I suppose could have been taken:
A stronger oil embargo, though Italy might have got oil overland from Romania still it would have weakened her economy and ability to wage war.
Closing the Suez Canal to all Italian traffic, drastic step but not much Italy can do about it unless they want to invade Egypt and that's probably not a good idea. Any Italian ships then have to go via the Cape and are open to more interference, e.g. all British and French ports in Africa closed to them.
Slap Hitler's remilitarisation of the Rhineland too, play it tough and both will have second thoughts.
Send Abyssinia modern arms and some 'advisers'.

Wild card is accept the Stresa Front and buy Italy's goodwill, toss them a League of Nations mandate or something.

Had this been 20 years later, the USSR would have been bound to get involved, but in this period world communism meant 'Europe', so no Soviet troops and tanks for Abyssinia.

Quoted from "Hood"

Closing the Suez Canal to all Italian traffic, drastic step but not much Italy can do about it unless they want to invade Egypt and that's probably not a good idea. Any Italian ships then have to go via the Cape and are open to more interference, e.g. all British and French ports in Africa closed to them.

This, and arming Ethiopia with some modern weapons, are the drastic steps I think might actually work.

French Djibouti has the port which feeds the only period railway into Ethiopia proper: the Italians don't have a railway into the interior past Asmara. Use that to ship supplies to Ethiopia - give them an air force that can stand up to the Italians - and shut down the Suez Canal to Italy and bam, you've pretty much quadrupled Italy's logistical issues.

I thought something similar. Arming Ethiopia with some modern equipment and close the Suez Canal. It could make shorter the ww2 (or just different) since that front would be defeated faster and/or with less troops. That would give the british a better position on North Africa. Maybe a more effective Operation Compass?

Without doubt the greatest possible deterrent to Italian adventurism in the Red Sea would have been the closure of the Suez Canal. Unfortunately, that weapon was not available to Britain or France due to the 1888 Convention of Constantinople that guaranteed to all nations the right of passage to all ships during war and peace. Which is why it was not closed to Italy during the Abyssinian Crisis. Yes, the British effectively took control of the canal during both world wars, but the legal principle of free transit was there.

So, first line of deterrence is not available, unless you can get Britain and France to declare war.

The question of arming Ethiopia is something of a double-edged sword, and also begs the question of how much, how soon. The Italians built up a force in excess of ten divisions with tanks (albeit little tankettes) and artillery, plus hundreds of aircraft before starting their invasion; to what level and on what scale do you build up the local opposition? And at what cost? Do you risk the possibility of encouraging Ethiopia to involve itself in adventures along the Somali Coast?

The threat of economic embargo – even an efficacious one – would not have deterred Mussolini from attempting his invasion. An efficacious embargo after the invasion *might* have crippled the Italian economy and brought the invasion to a stop – but if the Italians were willing to use poison gas dropped from aircraft I have to wonder if they would knuckle under. Particularly if economic weapons were the only ones that might be employed.

The only scenario that seems plausible to me might have been a sort of Cuban Missile Crisis blockade with every Italian vessel sailing towards the Red Sea would be boarded and turned back if it was carrying weapons or military equipment. This obviously risks war. Backed by the threat of effective sanctions, this might have given Italy pause.

Anyone see something else?

I can't see any other options.
It seems that in reality the LoN was powerless to do much, I was reading something yesterday that mentioned these events. The economic sanctions were half-hearted at best and never seem to havr been implemented to hinder Italy's economy or warfighting potential.

I guess also we shouldn't forget that few European nations really cared about non-colonial Africa, there seems to have been comparatively little willingness to assist Abyssinia or much public outcry compared to, say, the occupation of the Rhineland and of course the Spanish Civil War started a much wider movement. A sign of the times sadly, but I agree its hard to see what could have been done short of declaring war or serious disruptions to economic trade at a time when world economies were still recovering from the Great Depression.

Permit me to add another premise to the equation. Assume for the moment that Germany is not in a position to significantly intervene in the crisis? How might this change the balance for or against Italy?

Well, assuming that France and the UK would be willing to do it, they could embargo Italy, increase the army on their borders and take the navy to the Mediterranean and then they sent Mussolini a note saying "back off" and hope for the best. Perhaps even pressure other nations around Italy to do the same.
About the Suez Canal, they could try to make it go as an especial measure through the league of nations, but I doubt that the league would accept.

Did Germany substantially intervene in reality? This was slightly before the close relations between Hitler and Mussolini, one may have inspired the other but Italy was striking out alone.
Had Italy been checked then, and her weakness as a supposed Great Power under Fascist propaganda been exposed, its open to question what might have happened next. Italy might well have gone back to the Western camp, or an enraged Mussolini might have shackled his wagon to Hitler's horses far sooner and have been determined to cause even more problems in Spain for France and Britain.
Of course had Italy marched east from Libya in, say, 1937, I'm not sure the outcome would have been good for Britain, would the Army and RAF have easily beaten off the Italians like they did in 1940? Italy's fighting prowess is no greater but Britain's forces are smaller and less well equipped. An Egyptian uprising could have been costly too.
Imagine the effects if Britain was forced to cede control of Egypt, an Italian puppet Egypt maybe, perhaps maintaining a canal zone like 1950. That brings a whole host of fears and problems come 1st September 1939.

Quoted from "Hood"

Imagine the effects if Britain was forced to cede control of Egypt...

With the best will in the world, I just don't see that happening. Especially not after the RN shows up off the Italian coast with five R-class, five QEs, two Nelsons, and the battlecruisers.

Royal Navy: "Hey, what's up girls?"
Regia Marina: "Not much, just helping the boss invade Ethiopia and Egypt."
Royal Navy: "Yeah, we saw that. You know, I happen to have an interest in Egypt myself."
Regia Marina: "Oh."
Royal Navy: "Right. So I thought we could settle this in the regular fashion."
Regia Marina: "Um."
Royal Navy: "You are going to come out, right? It was kinda a serious trauma in the last war when the Germans didn't want to play."
Royal Navy Destroyers: "Play? Play? Play! Play? Play...?"
Regia Marina: "This sounds like it's going to be a very bad idea."
Marine National: "You should have thought of that earlier."
Regia Marina: "Uh... are you going to help us?"
Marine Nationale: "No, we're going to point and laugh."
Royal Navy: "So pick your location. Anywhere at sea is fine."
Regia Marina: "No! I'm not coming out to play."
Royal Navy Destroyers: "Play? Play? Play! Play? Play...?"
Royal Navy: "Oh, that's unfortunate. Hey, is this Genoa?"
Regia Marina: "OW! No, don't do that, it's historic!"
Royal Navy: "Oh well. Hey look, Naples!"
Regia Marina: "Stoooop!"
Royal Navy Cruisers: "Hey, does anyone know who's merchant marine this is? It was left lying around."
Regia Marina: "It's mine. Let it go!"
Royal Navy Cruisers: "Haha no."
Royal Navy Destroyers: "Play? Play? Play! Play! Play!
Royal Navy: "Aren't you building ships in La Spezia?"
Regia Marina: "...yes...? Nononono!"
Royal Navy Destroyers: "Play? Play? Play! Play? Play...?"
Royal Navy: "Look at this cute little town called Livorno! Oops, it's burning."
Marine Nationale: "ROFLMAO."
Royal Navy: "Oh yeah, you've got this awesome place called Venice, too!"
Regia Marina: "No don't! Stop!"
Royal Navy: "Make me."
Regia Marina: "Okay, here I come!"
Royal Navy Destroyers: "Play? Play? Play! PlayPlayPlayNOMNOMNOMNOM."
Regia Marina: "Incoherent screaming."
Royal Navy: "And now the rest of the fleet..."
Regia Marina: "Incoherent screaming intensifies."
Warspite: "Hey look, more Battle Honours!"