Many concerns have been expressed recently about the new Yugoslavian government. The immediate threat appears to have passed, with previous movements along the border having died away. Of greater concern is the very rapid modernisation of the Yugoslav armed forces, especially the army. Over the next few years it will become a much more potent force. The changes to the army, especially the increased mobility are most worrying. At the same time, the political situation in the country needs to be monitored. The current rate of defence expenditure is far from sustainable and will quickly lead to economic problems. Italy needs to be sure that any political problems that arise do not lead to any rash actions by the government. The sudden emergence of the Warsaw Pact has necessarily caused a large reassessment of the situation. The lack of any unifying threat to such a diverse group of nations puts the supposed defensive nature of the treaty under considerable scrutiny. The diverse nations and the historical problems in the region are likely to hinder putting the treaty into practice. These same issues can be used to Italy’s advantage. A full investigation of the new situation will have to be undertaken to see how it impacts the findings of the recent Strategic Defence Review.
The Air Defence Force has being making rapid strides in establishing itself as a separate entity and using its new found purchasing power. A network of air defence stations is being established throughout the north of the country around the industrial heartland. The force is attempting to head towards a layered system with warning posts, interceptors and artillery. The force has recently increased an existing order for mobile anti-aircraft artillery. This takes the form of the new 76/70 weapon and associated fire control directors. The system is a lot more complicated than the previous 75/46, especially with the remotely powered mountings, but offers much greater effectiveness. Questions were raised over the small calibre, but with the lack of a high altitude threat, the performance is sufficient and means the system is still relatively mobile. The requirement for a fast climbing interceptor has been met by Macchi, providing a much more powerful version of their C.202 with a bigger wing. The first flight should be later this year.
Elsewhere the world there are also concerns, India’s movements in the Middle East the most notable. After having consolidated her position in the region with the successful invasion of Persia, helped by the British no less, sources indicate that she is again turning her attention westwards. Saudi Arabia appears to be the most likely target, with her aims likely to expand her Hedjaz holding to most of the peninsula. India’s strategic position along the Red Sea and North West India Ocean would be untenable. The WASP defensive agreement is assessed as being ineffectual. It appears unlikely that the so called sponsors will step in. If they do, Italy should use the situation to her advantage. Currently, the best option is felt to be a show of force in the Indian Ocean. A large naval group will deploy to the region for a short period. The results will be of considerable interest, as Italy faces having to undertake such an action when India’s attentions turn further South in the future. Of most interest will be the ability to keep the fleet supplied through Suez and the Ethiopian ports.
OTO has got into full production of the new M26/39 tank with 20 units being produced each month. This will allow for the two armoured divisions to be re-equipped over the next four years. This finally gives Italy a modern tank but already doubts have been raised over it’s performance. The increase in numbers in heavy tanks in France, Germany and the Balkans has caused some issues with the M26 being unable to meet the threat. A number of options are currently being pursued, the simplest of which will be a new anti-tank gun to replace the 47/32. A series of new larger tanks is being drawn up but it will likely be some time before these are produced with the M26 in full scale production. One possible option being looked at is the addition of a new turret and gun to the M26.