Greece has become increasingly isolationist over the past decade, with its attention primarily on Anatolia and the Dodecanese. The large programme of defence spending, especially the number of light units, appears to be severely taxing their economy. The Greek’s current large margin of superiority over Turkish forces is likely to continue over the next decade, even with cut backs in further construction. Although a large force on paper, it is thought that the expense in new construction has lead to reduced training time. The single fleet base near Italy is unlikely to support sufficient numbers of vessels for effective operations, especially given the proximity to the major Italian naval base at Taranto. The effect of any likely Greek operations is expected to be small, the small Italian enclave in Albania being the only possible gain. Disruption of the trade route to Port Said could also be effected, though this could be nullified by adopting a more coastal route much closer to Cirenaica. It is thought that conflict will be unlikely, unless Greece becomes less isolationist, the nature of which transition would allow time for a fuller appraisal of the situation.
Turkey is similarly mainly concerned with the Greek presence in Anatolia, yet with recent events is also forced to look east to Armenia and Persia. The main force of the Turkish navy is deployed in the Mediterranean and could prove problematic given the proximity to Port Said. The lack of recent intelligence reports gives some uncertainty to Turkish thinking and possible future moves.
The UK has significant interests in the Mediterranean, although the largest of these, the Suez Canal, is shared with Italy. At the same time, the UK has deployed massive force to its Mediterranean Fleet, with five battleships and two aircraft carriers. Along with the large number of cruisers and destroyers, this presents a very real challenge to Italian naval superiority in the region. It is projected that the current Italian navy could defeat such a force, but it is likely to be reinforced heavily. Given the close proximity of interests and territories, it is unlikely that a confrontation would stay limited to the Mediterranean and would most likely rapidly escalate. Currently, there have been no conflicts of interest with the UK, though the Mediterranean Fleet is a major cause of concern. With an alliance with Greece, the only other country of significance in the region is Turkey for which such a fleet has overwhelming superiority. Diplomatic actions are also disconcerting, with the recent alliance with Germany and Nordmark completely upsetting the balance of power in Europe. The other major European powers, Italy and France, stand little chance against such a power block. The UK and Germany have solidly cemented their position in Europe with actions that have gone unnoticed by the rest of the world. Care will have to be taken to watch for further moves and steps taken to ensure that Italian interests are secure.
On the naval front, Yugoslavia presents little threat with few modern vessels. Her strategic position is weak, being surrounded by Italian territory on all sides. The short coastline holds only two ports of note in which to hold the entirety of her navy. The greatest threat comes from the light forces at her disposal, the short distance giving the possibility of disruption of coastal traffic in the Dalmatian archipelago. This was noted some time ago, with the resultant refitting and redeployment of the Palestro class torpedo boats. The recent large purchase of light craft from Mexico warrants the situation being re-examined. The other threat posed by the Yugoslav navy comes from the three German-built submarines. Although only of a small coastal design, these could be a major threat to capital units. As a result, a number of anti-submarine units are based at Brindisi across the Straits of Otranto. On land, the situation is less clear with a number of disconcerting incidents occurring along the border. It is widely acknowledged that Yugoslavia wishes to regain control of Dalmatia and Slovenia towards her part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. It is not sure to what lengths Yugoslavia will go to fulfil her goals, whether full scale invasion is to be attempted. Current indications suggest this to be very unlikely. From recent information obtained, it appears that a concerted attempt is being made towards helping eastwards leaning peoples gain political control. It is believed that Italy has little to fear militarily, although approaching parity of numbers, the Yugoslav army is a shambles unsuited for effective operations. It is expected that should Yugoslavia pursue a militaristic route, there will be some period of time for a build up of forces to occur. This would allow for Italian reserve units to be called up, with the possibility of reinforcement from Aegis units. A close check should be kept on Yugoslav actions, but they are not perceived as a real threat. Changes in the political situation could occur over the next decade so it is suggested that plans for possible defensive actions be drawn up.