WesWorld

Mexico has been selling oil to China for a while now, and isn't about to stop. While I havent researched the Mexican merchant marine in enough detail, I do know that a significant amount of Mexican oil tankers where sunk in WWII which suggest that Mexico does have the capability to ship the oil itself, plus China does have a decent size tanker fleet too.

China also has petroleum except at Fushum and Fusin where there were also extensive deposits of oil-rich slate, oil shale and shist. In Jehol some oil was extracted in conjunction with coal deposits. China also operated oil refineries.

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Originally posted by parador
China also has petroleum except at Fushum and Fusin where there were also extensive deposits of oil-rich slate, oil shale and shist. In Jehol some oil was extracted in conjunction with coal deposits. China also operated oil refineries.

You bought into German coal-liquefaction technology? I will have to check with the folks at Lurgi...

I feel for poor Kang Mung-sik; he seems to be the one-eyed man in the Great Leader's entourage.

("In the kingdom of the blind, the one-eyed man is king")

Indeed. If it comes to tanks Jong Un is as megalomanic as Hitler, but without the economic potency.

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Originally posted by Desertfox
Mexico has been selling oil to China for a while now, and isn't about to stop. While I havent researched the Mexican merchant marine in enough detail, I do know that a significant amount of Mexican oil tankers where sunk in WWII which suggest that Mexico does have the capability to ship the oil itself, plus China does have a decent size tanker fleet too.

Well, I have researched the OTL Mexican merchant marine in some detail. In 1941, the Mexican merchant marine owned seven tankers with an aggregate gross tonnage of 30,667. That same year the Mexican Government seized eight German and Italian tankers interned in Mexican ports, with an aggregate gross tonnage of 52,850.

Without straining credulity too much I could accept an upper limit for the WW Mexican tanker fleet of 15 vessels aggregating 83,517 tons gross - plus or minus 10 percent or so. Beyond that, I'd have to see some backstory. But that's just me.

Facta, non verba

Foxy : The difference is 9,000+nm west using the USA controlled Mexican canal- and they aren't allowing that, and 14,000nm east....if you can use Suez canal. Else a tad over 16,000nm around the Horn of Africa, then passing the Straits of Malacca in Dutch or English Territorial waters.

So between 55% to 78% more tankers suddenly required just to meet peacetime needs- much less wartime. From the who buys mexican oil poll...the Chinese are the main consumers, so you probably don't have much capacity going to other countries which you can redirect to meet the increased need.

Chinese oil : Chinese oil was negligible in this time period in the OTL. Quickest resource I found is this, which as I recall seeing before and finding it has some flaws, but demonstrates the point :

Strategic Minerals

Searching for "oil" Parador's enclyopedia specifies "shale oil plants" in relation to a 1916 railroad entry. Which is historically accurate, but doesn't produce great fuel, probably boiler feed, but not automotive or aviation fuel. It apparently wasn't sufficient in quantity to keep the IJN mobile in WW2. Otherwise- until this assertion that China has oil, I see no former statement to this effect. Likewise a search for the word "refineries" under Parador only returns this thread.

However, Oil in China wasn't discovered until 1959. Further, we've discussed and generally frown on ahistoric big discoveries such as this. Folks have the freedom to run their country their way, and certainly early discoveries have happened before- mainly prior to that aforementioned thread. Still, inventing an oil industry in the middle of a war this late in the SIM seems objectionable to me.

Chosen : Not really addressed yet.

The US would allow Mexican tankers through the Canal if their destination is anywhere but China or Chosen during the war, and of course those restrictions would be removed during peacetime.

I suppose the Mexicans could build a pipeline, that won't happen in a day though. Just to be spiteful, the US might hike the price 100% for the heavy equipment needed to build the pipeline. Health and Safety fees, y'know.

Hmm, so far I haven't thought much about oil suppy and I am not sure I will adress that issue seperately, because I see no (big)problem here. I would assume that I have a fuel and oil stockpile and getting the rest from SAE maybe or some asian country which produces oil.

Anyway, I have no real big oil consuming assets and the situation is not comparable with Japans in WWII. I have no big fleet other than a few submarines and only a little fraction of my army is motorized.
I will address supply problems later in the campaign though...

I would like to add on to what Kirk has said, although I am not part of the sim.

Historically China did have minor drills for oil and natural gas as early as 500 BC, although they were small and shallow deposits and there was no refining of the extracted crude oil. These oil "drills" uses were limited to the production of salt, lighting, and heating.

In "Standard Oil and Petroleum Development in Early Republican China", "America's China Trade in Historical Perspective", and other such literature during the 1890-1920 period there were many oil companies operating within China trading oil resources in bulk. Their conclusion about the prospect of Chinese oil is illuminating: "no material development of petroleum resources of China can be expected for some time." This view was held no so much because oil was unknown in China but because the political climate and realities made it extremely risky to attempt to do more extensive oil testing and even running an oil drill/refinery. It was too risky! They concluded to shift to the DEI for oil for this reason.

In the 1930s, before the Japanese invaded China there was extensive development for oil drills and plants. However, this was strongly discouraged by all the foreign oil trading companies raising their prices for importing oil to China (150% and above) as well as the Japanese invasion.

What is my point is: China had extensive oil reserves (quite obvious from modern maps), knew about it quite early on, but could never really develop the areas for oil extraction due to political unrest and other struggles.

It is plausible for China to have access to oil in this time frame if it did not suffer as it did historically, however, as Kirk points out, Parador has made no indication of such and as such should not be assumed.

Well Mexico most probably already has a cross-country pipeline. Mexico has been exporting oil for a long time now, and the canal just opened, so such a pipeline would have been a strategic necessity in case of closure of the Panama canal, plus would have been alot cheaper that shipping the oil via Panama. There is such a pipeline in Mexico but Im not sure when it was built.

Oh, good point Foxy, that makes sense. Given the Mexican-Iberian relations, and the Iberian attitude to the 1938 nationalisation, you had to have been exporting some other way.


Another aspect about resources now and then-
both technology has improved allowing extraction when not previously possible or economic,

and in many cases average ore quality has declined, the combination making previously substandard and uneconomical ores economical.

It was possible to have a discovered ore, and have it still be unviable due to quality/technology/infrastructure, as it was cheaper to ship over seas from a better spot.

Hah, I bet some folks are wishing I had stayed gone now !

There is always rail transport as well....

What Kang Mung-Sik wants to present to Jong Un is something like this...

... but then with Korean paint and markings.

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Hmm, so far I haven't thought much about oil suppy and I am not sure I will adress that issue seperately, because I see no (big)problem here. I would assume that I have a fuel and oil stockpile and getting the rest from SAE maybe or some asian country which produces oil.

SAE gets its oil from the DEI if I am not mistaken. I would think that Chosen also gets its oil from there. It would not be at all a crazy idea that the Dutch do that since the more China and Chosen fight with each other, the less of a threat they will be to the DEI once the fighting is over.

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Originally posted by Rooijen10
What Kang Mung-Sik wants to present to Jong Un is something like this...

... but then with Korean paint and markings.

Quoted

Hmm, so far I haven't thought much about oil suppy and I am not sure I will adress that issue seperately, because I see no (big)problem here. I would assume that I have a fuel and oil stockpile and getting the rest from SAE maybe or some asian country which produces oil.

SAE gets its oil from the DEI if I am not mistaken. I would think that Chosen also gets its oil from there. It would not be at all a crazy idea that the Dutch do that since the more China and Chosen fight with each other, the less of a threat they will be to the DEI once the fighting is over.

Awesome tank but impossible that Chosens industry could manufacture something like this at a reasonable rate....but if Japan would sell those machines....I would be interested

That dude has a huge bedroom.

Well, it needs to be big enough to contain his dreams.

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Originally posted by The Rock Doctor
That dude has a huge bedroom.

Like the Tardis, it's a lot bigger on the inside...

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Originally posted by Rooijen10

SAE gets its oil from the DEI if I am not mistaken. I would think that Chosen also gets its oil from there. It would not be at all a crazy idea that the Dutch do that since the more China and Chosen fight with each other, the less of a threat they will be to the DEI once the fighting is over.

To expound on why I'm inquiring on this issue.

Part of what all brought it to mind. Throughout the SATSUMA days, the Dutch allowed oil exports to the region because 1) it's profitable 2) puts our vessels (and eyes) in the region 3) help track stockpiling 4)in war they'd need to look elsewhere. China had indicated Mexico in the past- no one else. Roo's indicated in the past a chunk of Japans oil did come from here. Chosen has since been spun off but that hasn't changed.

The Dutch are very free trade, and take a dim view of folks not following international norms. Further, they suffered under the Entente blockade of the Great War. The guiding hand of the Queen can be seen having an effect. Who hosted the Peace Conferences? Who arranged the Kaiser's exit (fixing the domestic German politics) Ultimately, who sent Kongo troops to the LON Bolivia mission, the Household troops to Lithuania, or even had a voice in Belgium's sending troops ? ...and is a major shareholder in Royal Dutch & Shell ?

Unrestricted Submarine warfare is not something she'd condone, and would be very very unpopular with the Dutch people. Previously, the Dutch have reacted to potential attacks on merchant shipping by activating their large escort fleet. Since the early 1930s, warships have escorted vessels in 4 conflict periods in the Red Sea, Indian Ocean, and South China Sea. They have been very very activist in their policies.

Currently, I'm thinking they'd view undeclared warships attacking merchants as effectively pirates. Pirates can be sunk on sight. The theater is really not that far from the DEI considering Dutch ranges.

Now, 2 complicating factors would be engaging Japan as realpolitiks says it's the Japanese sphere of influence, and the Dutch are too weak to ignore realpolitiks. Frankly one reason they push the international venues as resolution- to give them validity and chain the great powers to them.

The second part is the players wanting their sandbox for themselves, however the prosecution of conflict with neutrals changes that. Of course naval interdiction only really matters if the nation is getting supplies of import from overseas. In both cases that seems to be so. I'll also note that much of Chosen's WWII industrial base had been built in the 1930s by Japan, while here that was the time period Chosen left the nest.

So establishing where China and Chosen's strategic resources are coming from matters. Coal and poor iron they have. Stuff like Oil, rubber, tin, even mica they don't.

So if that oil's coming from Royal Dutch and Shell, or extracted in Dutch Territory, or just passes through Dutch waters. Indeed, those "Chosen" freighters from SAE don't have an ironclad route- though talks with the UK would have to occur for Realpolitik reasons.


Edit : I happen to have a 1944 Brookings institute report on the post-war control of Germany and Japan, and in Japan's case the sourcing of resources critical to war fighting is a topic- as is the development of infrastructure/industries Manchuria/Korea in the 1930s. So thats a big reason why such questions pop so readily into my mind.

For the moment at least, it would seem that Chosen has decided to modify its stance vis-à-vis neutral merchant shipping, and is concentrating its efforts against the Chinese Fleet. This is a wise move on Chosen's part. Interdicting Chinese SLOCs will help its ground forces far more than inciting the rest of the world against Chosen.