WesWorld

Here's the modern-day populations of the various Iberian confederated regions:

................................2008 Actual.......1930s Estimate
Spain:........................45,000,000........25,875,000 [1]
Portugal:...................10,000,000........5,750,000
Angola:.....................17,000,000........9,775,000
Ecuador:...................14,000,000........8,050,000
Cuba:.......................11,000,000........6,325,000
Guatemala:...............13,000,000.........7,475,000
Honduras:.................7,000,000..........4,025,000
El Salvador:..............7,000,000...........4,025,000
Nicaragua:.................5,000,000..........2,875,000
Costa Rica:................4,500,000..........2,587,500
Panama:...................3,000,000..........1,725,000
Haiti:........................9,500,000..........5,462,500
Dominican Republic:...10,000,000........5,750,000
Liberia:.....................3,750,000.........2,156,250
Sierra Leone:............6,000,000.........3,450,000
Hainan Island:............8,000,000.........4,600,000
TOTAL....................173,750,000.......99,906,250

My estimate was made by taking the 1935 and 2008 population of Spain and extrapolating that the Iberian Federation of 1937 is 57.5% as populous as the countries of today. With better medical and health facilities the Federation can provide, there should be a higher standard of life expectancy and lower infant mortality rates for the outlying regions which IOTL would still be subsistence farmers.

[1]: Research tells me this was the actual 1935 population of Spain

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Originally posted by Kaiser Kirk
However, for the case at hand:
The island of Hainan is 33,920km2, current pop 8.18mil
The nation of Belgium is 30,528km2, current pop 10.67m.

If Belgium could muster 23 small divisions in WWII and fit them and fortified areas around it's population, I expect the Iberians can manage their deployment.

That satisfy's my thinking on the matter.

When will people finally come to the conclusion that I am not a powergamer.

Anyone remember "Rage", the werewolf card game?
My best deck had no character over 4 renown.

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Originally posted by Brockpaine
TOTAL....................173,750,000.......99,906,250

Well crud, that means the United Kingdom of the Netherlands drops another rung, we're only in the 67-72m range as I recall.

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When will people finally come to the conclusion that I am not a powergamer.

Anyone remember "Rage", the werewolf card game?
My best deck had no character over 4 renown.

Frankly, I don't think the first has been intentionally suggested, it's a numbers shock thing related to the specific deployments.

As for Werewolf? Sorry, familiar with the RPG, never played the card game. Only one I got ensnared in was Legend of the Five Rings.



Last... but not least...
The county I live in is 10,044km2 with ~86,000 people. Population density is not a problem here

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Originally posted by Kaiser Kirk

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Originally posted by Brockpaine
TOTAL....................173,750,000.......99,906,250

Well crud, that means the United Kingdom of the Netherlands drops another rung, we're only in the 67-72m range as I recall.

And I concede that figure might perhaps be optimistic: I can only claim with certainty the population of Spain, as my Google-fu was not strong enough to find anything else. I merely extrapolated from the available data, picked 57.5% of modern, and calculated the breakdown according to that figure. It's an imprecise sorcery, demographics... and with an alternate history and the blurring of lines amongst these powers, it'll be difficult to stake out a defiant stand on the matter.

China see the stationing of the troops (10 Divisions) at San Hainando with concerns.

I'm convinced. Nice use of statistical data.

.... because it means that their offensive troops will not have the "walk in the park" that they previously imagined.

China has nothing to fear from Iberia, but Iberia has everything to fear from China.

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Iberia:
San Hainando:
10 divisions -
- 1 Marine
- 5 Infantry
- 3 Fusiliers/Grenadiers
- 1 Tank

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France:
Indochina - 3 infantry divisions, 1 Vietnamese Corps, 1 Cambodian Corps

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Russia: Active forces, Central Asian, Siberian, and Far Eastern Military Districts:

2 Armies (9 Divisions each)
3 Independent Rifle Corps (9 Divisions total)
1 Tank Division
1 Mechanized Division
3 Motor Rifle Divisions
3 Cavalry Corps
1 Naval Infantry Bde

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China:
airborne divisions, two amphibious infantry divisions, the first two chinese tank divisions, 4 Mountain Divisions and the first 30 Infantry Divisions are restructured.

Noting these forces available, Russian military analysts see no particular military imbalance at present.

Any offensive operation launched under the present force balance would be an extremely risky affair, with no particular prospect for success.

Agree with Admiral K. Any attempt to take Hainan at this time will be suicidal.

Agree also with Admiral K. !!!

And second - China won't attack Hainan Dao. But it will be interesting, where these rumors come from.

China clearly needs to rapidly expand its forces... I didnt think that SATSUMA was that badly outnumbered and outgunned on land and air

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Originally posted by Vukovlad
China clearly needs to rapidly expand its forces... I didnt think that SATSUMA was that badly outnumbered and outgunned on land and air

Its relatively easy for China to give rifles to millions of men though and completely tip the balance the other way.

SATSUMA cleary must do something about that Iberian infestation so close to their own land. The sooner they do it, the better...

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Originally posted by Red Admiral

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Originally posted by Vukovlad
China clearly needs to rapidly expand its forces... I didnt think that SATSUMA was that badly outnumbered and outgunned on land and air

Its relatively easy for China to give rifles to millions of men though and completely tip the balance the other way.

Hmm, Chinese peasants with obsolescent rifles against SAER and AEGIS Moto-Mechanized Armies... Yup that should tip the balance...

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Originally posted by Vukovlad
Hmm, Chinese peasants with obsolescent rifles against SAER and AEGIS Moto-Mechanized Armies... Yup that should tip the balance...

It worked pretty well in Korea. Sooner or later you run out of ammunition and space to retreat.

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Originally posted by Desertfox
SATSUMA cleary must do something about that Iberian infestation so close to their own land. The sooner they do it, the better...

Hmmm, there's an idea!
MAYBE Iberia should do something about theMexican infestation so close to it's land!!

Then Hrolf could add the new state of "Old Mexico" to the US (aka from the Rio Grande to the former Mexican canal),
and Iberia can have the Yucatan and the remaining bits that are south of the former Mexican Canal.

Hey now, no talk about the "former Mexican canal"! Several nations have a vested interest in that canal and would be preaty upset if those investments went up in smoke.

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Originally posted by Vukovlad
China clearly needs to rapidly expand its forces... I didnt think that SATSUMA was that badly outnumbered and outgunned on land and air

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Originally posted by Vukovlad
Hmm, Chinese peasants with obsolescent rifles against SAER and AEGIS Moto-Mechanized Armies... Yup that should tip the balance...

Ummm last time I checked SATSUMA had quite a few moto-mechanised armies AND weight in numbers AND like to sabre rattle with anyone who either disagrees with their political policy's towards their neighbours or flat out stand up to them and remind them to mind their own bee's wax!

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Originally posted by perdedor99
I'm convinced. Nice use of statistical data.

I also note that historically, China itself boasted a population of 452.8 million people in 1935. (Cite, page 468.)

Presuming China's divisions are 15,000 men apiece, WW China has 585,000 men under arms and the disposition of one soldier per thousand (1.292 if you wish to be precise) which is just a tad less than the 1.71 soldiers per thousand they have today. The Chinese raised 5,600,000 troops between 1937 and 1945 to fight Japan, but as I recall most of those soldiers were peasant armies with largely obsolescent equipment, build around more professional units trained according to the Prussian model and armed with German equipment.

While European nations were able to raise 20/1000 without severely damaging their civilian economy (and the US put nearly one in eleven under arms for WWII), I'm a bit skeptical if China would be able to raise that ratio much. Correct me if I'm wrong, but as I understood most of the infrastructure of China was concentrated along the coast (being built by the foreign devils, yes yes). Despite that huge population a sizeable percentage, perhaps a majority, of Chinese would still be subsistence rice farmers. Until China could improve their infrastructure and their farming methods to permit agricultural surplus off the production of fewer farmers (more troops would undoubtedly come from this class), then their army isn't going to grow much more without making serious detrimental effects to training and equipage.

As nearly as I can see it, WW China is trying to build a Western-style army in terms of training and equipment (you can see it in their OOB and TO&E) without making the necessary sociological changes to address why the Western armies actually win. That's what the Japanese did in the late 19th and early 20th Centuries, and it's why they didn't have a chance at winning WWII, and why SATSUMA can't win a war of the same class. The weapons have changed, but the societal values have not.

The recent news about China preparing to return to a monarchy confirms in my eyes that their societal cues will prevent them from being as good at war as the West is. If China (or any SATSUMA nation) wished to become as good at war, then they wouldn't fit under the SATSUMA social model any more. IMHO, the Philippines is the only nation out of SATSUMA which might qualify, since they hold the most Western values which would make them better at war. That also, again purely in my opinion, makes the Philippines the most likely to leave SATSUMA and join European nations who represent more shared values.

If anyone's interested in discussing this topic more, I'd suggest picking up Carnage and Culture by Victor Davis Hanson (published in the UK as Why the West Has Won: Carnage and Culture from Salamis to Vietnam) which has largely shaped my feelings of how cultures fight wars.

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Originally posted by Commodore Green
Then Hrolf could add the new state of "Old Mexico" to the US (aka from the Rio Grande to the former Mexican canal)...

Heh, the US did it in 1848! Go fer it, Hrolf!

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Hmm, Chinese peasants with obsolescent rifles against SAER and AEGIS Moto-Mechanized Armies... Yup that should tip the balance...

I count 2 Chinese Tank Divisions.

I count 1 Russian and 1 Iberian Tank Divisions, 1 Russian Mechanized Division, and 3 Russian Motorized Rifle Divisions.

Either of these forces might well penetrate quite deeply in a few days of offensive operations, only to find themselves out of fuel, out of ammunition, out of food, and with many broken-down vehicles, surrounded by a sea of peasants with rifles.

FM-3-24 Counterinsurgency tells us that to occupy territory harboring active irregular resistance forces requires ~20 troops per 1,000 population. The offensive forces available to either side would find themselves overwhelmed by just the rear area security requirement if they dared penetrate hostile territory to any real depth.

And if the defender maintains an Army in the field, the problem gets 10 times worse.

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As nearly as I can see it, WW China is trying to build a Western-style army in terms of training and equipment (you can see it in their OOB and TO&E) without making the necessary sociological changes to address why the Western armies actually win.

Hence the emphasis the French were/are placing on education/land reform/industrialization in their Indochina colonies.