WesWorld

Brock's analysis confirms what I thought a fortnight ago (but hadn't had time to compile), that the losses so far are crippling. The wounded of course covers everything from those who could be patched up fairly quickly to rejoin the line but others are going to be seriously wounded and disabled. Whatever happens when the war ends, the social and cultural scars will take time to heal.

The tank situation looks serious and for the Air Force losing so much of its airpower is going to start telling soon. The Chinese AF is much more powerful than OTL with some modern designs. Sooner or later Chosen is going to feel the brunt of Chinese air attacks. I'm surprised we haven't seen any Chinese carrier strikes against land targets.

For China, they haven't performed well but the sheer bulk is what is more worrying than anything else.
I can't see any major power in the region wanting to back Chosen, the question marks over the outbreak of war haven't been answered and once China releases the massacre information its powerful propaganda. The fact Japan has not aided its symbiotic puppet/ ally is perhaps worrying for Chosen. Certainly they probably would if the USA or any outside power started putting their noses into their backyard. And I would assume Japan would stop any Chinese take-over of Chosen so a negotiated peace is most likely unless China wants to fight Japan and we get a regional war for the next 5 years or so.

Brock's analysis paints a very realistic picture - if things proceed as they are Chosen will fail to attain, or if attained, hold on to its initial objectives in the face of Chinese counterattacks. The balance of forces is against them - or so it would seem.

It surprises me that China has been so sluggish to react, but this is not the only thing that puzzles me. Despite having announced a number of powerful-looking tank designs to the world, China sought, obtained and rushed into combat Mexican surplus vehicles of doubtful usefulness - which makes me suspicious of actual Chinese manufacturing capacity. Despite its many modern designs, the Chinese Air Force has not intervened on the battlefield in any meaningful way - the defense of Fushun being its best showing thus far. The Chinese Army has huge numbers on paper but it is not being deployed. This makes me wonder if in fact China is a paper tiger.

Could the struggle last until 1944 without outside intervention? If both nations choose to bleed themselves it is certainly possible. Would this be rational, from a European POV? Certainly not. Yet as Daidalos has made plain on several occasions, the combatants have a different ethos, and the Chosen Government, certainly, is not impelled by rational considerations but by the whims of the Great Leader.

Both combatants have heretofore ignored the rather pointed comments from their neighbor and ally Japan that all the major cities in Chosen and north China could be flattened by the air forces of Japan. If they are not willing to take such a hint, I do not think that Japan will intervene on one side or another.

Okay, I try to give a more helpful answer this time.

Concerning the losses: For european Wesworld standards they seem to be high. This has several reasons: Chosens soldiers and officers are not as well trained as european counterparts. Due to difficult terrain and climate as well as poor medical provisions attrition rates are rather high.
However, manpower-wise I don't see any problems at the moment.

Concerning tank and vehicle losses: The majority of those losses can be replaced by imports and domestic production at the moment. In the long run Chosen will lose its ability to wage some kind of mobile warfare but it should be considered that I have only 2 tank brigades in action at the momentand most of the terrain where combat happens is ill suited for any kind of large-scale tank operations. While still on the offensive these tank-brigades are handy but their importance for the general war effort should not be overestimated. Chosens Army is an infantry force and tanks don't play a decisive role, they are a gimmick.

Airforce is a different story. After the Fushun desaster I will have to cancel most offensive operations for some weeks. In the long run I think replacing killed pilots will be more of a problem than replacing planes.

It would be interesting to see what sort of domestic production or imports are replacing Chosen's tank and vehicle losses. There is no doubt in my mind that China should be using its superior sea power (relative to Chosen) to shut off outside supplies of such equipment. If China finally does so, Chosen's ability to respond will be severely degraded.

As it is, you seem to be projecting a scenario where the best you will be able to do is have your armies stand where they are and be swamped by superior Chinese numbers. That is not a winning scenario. Of course, you can script a war that way, but it is not rational. It merely confirms the player-base's estimation of the "Great Leader".

You've only got two armoured brigades in action and you've lost 192 tanks!
I don't know how many tanks are in the brigade OOB but you've probably had to completely re-equip each brigade in real terms in both hardware and manpower (I doubt all the crews have survived). That could mean anything between 50-100 trained commanders have perished. Even if you replace them with untrained crews all that does is further increase your losses. Of course going less-mobile is another option and probably the only one open to the Army in the long run. And that means defensive rather than offensive operations.

The Great leader is confident that after Chosens troops captured Shenyang and Dairen the Chinese would want to talk about peace and Chosen would be in a position to dictate its demands.
While Chosens military performance was glorious most of the time, the Chinese proved to be no match on the field.
The Chinese military leadership is highly incompetent and the individual Chinese soldier is timid, gutless and undisciplined. These are the reasons why the Chinese are known as "Italians of the east".

On the opposite Chosens soldiers are well disciplined, fearless and have every physical and psychic feature which makes a highly effective warrior.

The Chinese will sooner or later realize that their sheer numbers won't save them. They are prey for the Chosen predator.

Well, the Cavalry Divisions have tanks attached too. But in general you are right, the losses were high.
However some of those tanks declared as losses are recoverable and will be repaired if possible.

Quoted

Originally posted by Daidalos
Okay, I try to give a more helpful answer this time.

Concerning the losses: For european Wesworld standards they seem to be high.

Let's be blunt: if those twenty thousand Chosen dead had bought Chosen a decisive victory, then the casualties would not be that high in comparison to the stakes of the game. But Chosen has not gained a victory - certainly not a clear one. It's lost twenty thousand men pushing back border guards in the Chinese hinterlands. They've gained no territory that will strengthen their hand against China, and in return they've spent the equivalent of a corps in KIA and WIA. China has not yet been even minorly injured by this incursion. Angered, yes; hurt, no. I'm looking at the maps, and Chosen's captured nothing of consequence, and spent a corps doing it.

You say only two of Chosen's armoured brigades is committed? Great - with those tank losses, at least one of them is erased. The territory Chosen has captured is worth jack diddly, and look what Chosen has paid for it.

Here's my opinion:

China is luring Chosen's army towards Dalian and Shenyang. These spots are part of China's decisive points, the places where China's military power is focused. Chosen is right to focus on taking them, since they represent part of China's center of gravity. But China knows this, too. Realistically, at this point a marginally competent Chinese general would determine to allow his divisions on the border to fall back in good order, contesting favorable ground against Chosen's advance wherever it might be found. He exchanges space - of which he has much, of not great worth - for time.

A truly skillful Chinese commander would let this happen, seeding in Chosen's generals the illusion of their own invincibility. The frontline divisions on the border shall only be reinforced as necessary to prevent them from being overwhelmed, and shall only fight as necessary to lure Chosen onward to their destruction. That's been shown in the story posts so far. "Pretend inferiority and encourage his arrogance" as Sun Tzu wrote. Once Chosen's army has reached out towards Shenyang and Dalian, they have extended - supply lines are stretching - troops are tiring - generals are overconfident. Then the forces China has brought up to their centers of gravity shall harden their defense, as we have not yet seen in this war.

Chosen's generals, believing victory to be near, will commit their reserves in the belief that "one final push" will break the defenses. Perhaps they will, in places - but the cost of doing so will be tremendous. This is called the point of culmination, where the defender's combat power exceeds the attacker's combat power and inertia. Only after Chosen has thus flailed blindly forward, at the limit of their operational reach, will the canny Chinese commander then begin to apply his advantages in simultaneity and depth - he will commit the numerically superior forces available in the region of his center of gravity. He will overload Chosen's tired, overextended forces with his own units. He will shatter the front and it shall collapse. He shall commit his reserves to the pursuit. Chosen's generals shall be shocked - they know only that the defeated has risen from the dead, and is invincible. They have neither the forces to stabilize the front nor the mental capability to order a retreat - or indeed probably even have the insight to recognize what went wrong.

And because he's going to wait until Chosen's gotten into the flat country around Shenyang and Dalian, rather than in the mountainous border regions, any survivors who want to escape will be pursued by Chinese tanks all the way back to the Yalu.

The greatest problem is that Chosen has already demonstrated it's inability to overcome even the border forces without taking heavy casualties. I explained a lot of the terms here in my article about the Andean War (in which Chile recovered from a situation much worse than the one facing China, against an opponent much more competent than Chosen, composed of similar types of forces).

If China does not win this war in the next sixty days - four months at the longest - then I expect, in character, that one or two of the Great Powers could conquer them in the course of four months, given the level of incompetence that would take on China's part.

The most realistic scenario I could see for an extended war (over six months) is if a coup of Chinese military generals decided to use the opportunity to overthrow Emperor Pu-Yi, and along the way started a civil war within China. Then China is divided into factions, one or two of which is fighting Chosen.

Quoted

Originally posted by Daidalos
The Great leader is confident that after Chosens troops captured Shenyang and Dairen the Chinese would want to talk about peace and Chosen would be in a position to dictate its demands.
While Chosens military performance was glorious most of the time, the Chinese proved to be no match on the field.
The Chinese military leadership is highly incompetent and the individual Chinese soldier is timid, gutless and undisciplined. These are the reasons why the Chinese are known as "Italians of the east".

On the opposite Chosens soldiers are well disciplined, fearless and have every physical and psychic feature which makes a highly effective warrior.

The Chinese will sooner or later realize that their sheer numbers won't save them. They are prey for the Chosen predator.

I thought this was supposed to be the "Out of Character" thread?

It's no doubt an In Character Out of Character comment.

Quoted

13 September 1943

From: Government of Iberia
To: Government of Chosen

The Government of Iberia requests permission to attach observers to the Chosenian land, air, and naval forces. Such observers will allow Iberia to learn about Chinese tactics and strategy, and may provide a useful alternate perspective for Chosenian forces in development of their own strategy and tactics.

A most interesting development. It will be interesting should the Iberian 'observers' and the Mexican 'volunteers' meet each other over a gunsight or two...

Indeed. I have little time this week but I will write a response and the next combat reports next week.

Well, Iberia's not at the "volunteer" stage of things, but they do have a preferred outcome to this particular conflict and a distinct interest in how one of the participants operates...

I am glad for the clarification...

Alas reaching a position on which participant to back has been difficult for me. They both seem to be loose cannons. However, I suspect that the Philippines and Iberia would share a common interest in some respects.

Sorry for the inactivity during the last ten days. I was quite occupied and found little time to post warnews.

I must wonder if Hwang Lee-Moon is talking out of turn. Japan is supplying Chosen with war material? This would be most interesting.

Unofficially...yes.
I think will post weapon imports in a separate thread very soon to give some more insight

Quoted

Originally posted by Daidalos
Unofficially...yes.
I think will post weapon imports in a separate thread very soon to give some more insight

Really? This is quite surprising.

OOC:

Quoted

Japan is supplying Chosen with war material? This would be most interesting.

I think i have to ask my Commander of the Secret Service about this ......

Officially: Japan only sends cargo ships with food, medicine and other vital materials to Chosen.

Unofficially: Japan only sends cargo ships with food, medicine and other vital materials to Chosen.