WesWorld

(With thanks, and apologies, to Swampy..)

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The Filipino election cycle has begun. The Presidency, the three Ministerial positions (Health, Agriculture and Attorney General), twelve of twenty-four seats in the Senate, and all 250 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs.

Campaign season has come at an unfortunate time, and this year's elections promise to be the strangest since.. well, since the 1928 elections. Most of Manila, including many of the government offices "in play", are actually under quarantine. The standing government has been massively disrupted, and what should have been an easy election year for FLAN (Presidente de la Vega's party) has turned into a very dicey situation.

El Derretir is the primary cause of the trouble.

The election of de Varga fours years ago, along with the subsequent Socialist coup, exposed the deep split in the Filipino electorate, and a strong discontent with the current state of affairs. The average, devoutly Catholic, rural Filipino has not seen financial improvement benefiting him in nearly a decade, while Metro Manila grows at a massive pace. Leftist sentiment among the discontented poor was the primary support behind Greco and Jourdain’s “Democratic Oriental Republic”, with only a few metropolitan intellectuals. Conversely, the more moderate urban voters, fed up with fomer President Piña’s vacillating stand on foreign affairs, propelled de Varga to power.

In the wake of the Revolution, Presidente de la Vega has attempted to appeal to both of these groups, and for the most part succeeded. But the plague has undermined his popularity among both rural and urbanite sections of society. Most of the population of Manila, de la Vega’s strongest supporters, has been forced to flee in the wake of El Derretir, and the spectre of the plague looms over most other concentrated urban centers. Meanwhile, the internal (inter-island) blockade and forced quarantine has shut down much of the Filipino economy, with poor farmers suffering the most.

The standing FLAN majority in the House has joined the mass exodus of refugees from Manila, fleeing home to their districts to persuade their constituencies that the plague is Not Their Fault, and that the economic crises is Out Of Their Control. But will the voters buy it? The opposition is making gains, particularly in Mindanao and north-central Luzon.

Although nearly a dozen Presidential nominees will be on the ticket in August (another sign of the Philippines’ fractured electorate), only two appear to have any chance of ousting de la Vega from power: Esperanzo Cabral of the National Democratic Party, a right-wing candidate with positions similar to the deceased de Varga’s, and the wildcard candidate: Archbishop Gabriel Santos.

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The Radio Debate (made available nationally via F.I.N.E.R.) will be held on August 1st.

The election will be held August 14th, and results will be released on the 16th.

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Who’s Who in Filipino Politics

El Presidente Juan Diego de la Vega
El Presidente de las Filipinas; Presidental Canidate, Filipino Liberty And Nationality Party (FLAN)
Pol-O-Meter: (left) ___________|___^______ (right)
Favours closer relations with: Germany, Italy, USA
Preisdente de la Vega is the closest the Philippines has to "old-school”. A centrist, moderate candidate running on a platform of continued social and economic reform and strengthening the diplomatic relationships built abroad. de la Vega has gained much sympathy after the recent assassination attempts on his family, but has legitimacy issues - he was never actually elected, in any case. He is strong in the metropolitan areas and in southern Luzon.

Señor Esperanzo Cabral
Senator; Presidental Canidate, Nationalist Democratic Party (NDP)
Pol-O-Meter: (left) ___________|________^__ (right)
Favours closer relations with: Australia, Italy
Señor Cabral is an experienced Senator from central Luzon who has led his smallish party through two fourth-place losses in Presidential elections. He favors a more confrontational approach to international diplomacy, and has gained much corporate backing by his promises to increase government subsidies. He blames the breakout of El Derretir on FLAN's "lax military policy". Cabral has strong political clout in northern Luzon.

Archbishop Gabriel Santos
Archbishop of Manila; Presidential Candidate, Christian People’s Party (CPP)
Pol-O-Meter: (left) ___________|______????_ (right)
Favours closer relations with: Unknown
Archbishop Santos is the popular head of the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Manila. Previously uninvolved in politics, he has stated that the outbreak of El Derretir and a recent “attempt on [his] life” (see Q3/31 news) have forced him into the political sphere. He favors closer ties between the national government and the Catholic Church, calling the Philippines a “Catholic Nation”. Economically, he has a populist message. Socially, he is a hard-line conservative, and intends to roll back recent reforms. His stance on foreign policy is unknown, although a recent speech mentioned “freeing las Filipinas from foreign entanglements”…

Looks like 'interesting times ahead'...and that, no matter who is elected, the Philippines will be in the Right. ^_^


(BTW, we need more Garcia action at the conference! The people demand it, he has that lean and hungry look!

...well, at least the hungry look, anyway. )

Indeed, the whole assasination, coup and failed revolution thing kinda tarnished most of the Left in Filipino politics. ;p

Ahh Garcia.. I'll have him speak his mind some more.

Any other thoughts?

Swampy is right about the right-wing tendency of Filipino politics, but this is only a temporary swing, a backlash against the coup and Revolution. After this election, more liberal candidates will begin to show their faces once more.

In the meantime, the voters have to choose between keeping things the way they are, a hardline, aggressive and populist nation, and a theocracy.

The El Derretir problems would seem to doom those associated with the current government. The response hasn't been bad, but the economic effects would really hurt, and his urban base is disrupted, unhappy, and displaced. The country has not gone well, and gee somebody should pay.

The disruption of central power may also have strengthened provincial powers and made them more politically active.
I'd say Senor Cabral has the funding for the electoral machinery to succeed, and the subsidy message would help.

Archbishop Santos is treading an odd path. Quite likely to get a good chunk of votes, and win in rural districts, but unlikely to have the support of the extant political powers and real chance of winning unless he steps the rhetoric up. . However, a promise of support for either party could make him the kingmaker, and it's easier to persuade the party out of power that it needs the help. So I say Senor Cabral, with the support of Archbishop Santos, by a length in the bottom of the 9th for the winning field goal. Wait, I think I'm mixing sports metaphors.... is that cricket?

Quoted

is that cricket?

Calvinball actually.

As long as we aren't in for another round of rounds fired and the four horsemen riding into town, I think the world can handle the changes to the Philippines.

Quoted

Wait, I think I'm mixing sports metaphors.... is that cricket?

"You know me; I never metaphor I didn't like..."

Quoted

Originally posted by Kaiser Kirk
The El Derretir problems would seem to doom those associated with the current government. The response hasn't been bad, but the economic effects would really hurt, and his urban base is disrupted, unhappy, and displaced. The country has not gone well, and gee somebody should pay.

The disruption of central power may also have strengthened provincial powers and made them more politically active.
I'd say Senor Cabral has the funding for the electoral machinery to succeed, and the subsidy message would help.

Archbishop Santos is treading an odd path. Quite likely to get a good chunk of votes, and win in rural districts, but unlikely to have the support of the extant political powers and real chance of winning unless he steps the rhetoric up. . However, a promise of support for either party could make him the kingmaker, and it's easier to persuade the party out of power that it needs the help. So I say Senor Cabral, with the support of Archbishop Santos, by a length in the bottom of the 9th for the winning field goal. Wait, I think I'm mixing sports metaphors.... is that cricket?

Very accurate, for the most part.

De la Vega and FLAN aren't out of the game yet. His base has been shaken, badly, but the majority will still vote with their gut (and for FLAN) rather than "vote with the peasants".

Santos is very much an outsider, as you noted, and something of a mystery. His rhetoric is harsh, but he seems willing to compromise in order to win..

Cabral may actually benefit from the situation most. Those turned off by FLAN's taint of plague and the CPP's radicalism may go for the relatively safe Cabral.

Whoever wins the Presidency, it is doubtful that any party will have a majority in the House. FLAN will probably maintain their majority in the Senate.

De la Vega is still the front runner, although he does not have a majority. Current (June 15 1932) polling:

De la Vega (FLAN): 37%
Cabral (NDP): 34%
Santos (CPP): 29%