WesWorld

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Originally posted by Red Admiral

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Or a beat down with the Italians, though I don´t know how to scipt something realistic with RA having all this advanced tech stuff floating around.... :o/

I'll promise not to use the satellite based lasers...

The actual bits of kit equipping most Italian forces are pretty standard rather than advanced. There's a difference between what was planned to be built and what actually got built.

IMO I see the Italians in a disadvantage and if the Dutch goes to the SAE side there goes AANM. On the other hand there is not a direct route to the EAS from SAE territory so this war will be pretty much a Naval scenario.

ndia is not forced by Saint to go free for all as in ABUSE so in this scenario India will offer help and is up to the SAE to accept it or not. At the very least Indian bases will be made available for SAE ships and aircrafts.

Jason you seem to have a nack (without even trying) to start very interesting conversations!

SAE vs AEGIS would most likely result in the Dutch sitting things out, support one ally and you tick the other off. If India supports the SAE, AEGIS can cause all kinds of trouble in yemen, The Hedjaz and Saudi Arabia without even having to touch India. Most of the fighting would be in the Gulf of Aden and Western Indian ocean regions. If India is active in the conflict it could spread to the eastern Indian ocean and Arabian sea, the later threatening to widen the war with ABUSE taking effect.

The most important question is though, what would the conflict be over? Pirates from EAS? Italy and the SAE might not get along but Italy is a reasonably civilized country and they'd likely stomp on any pirates that started flairing up tentions with other nations.

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Jason you seem to have a nack (without even trying) to start very interesting conversations!

*Points finger at Brock* Its all his fault, he was the first reply.

In any case, carry on, discussion is not usually a bad thing so long as its polite which this has been.

In any case, the Brazilian position is that any conflict against the SAE is profitable for us, because it should theoretically weaken their navy enough for the ABC powers to at least have somewhat have a chance, however the longer ABC waits, the more ships Brazil will have on the northern front to "distract" the SAE. Of course, Hoo will also be building ships.

On a different topic, it would be nice to have an ABC forum although its not necessary, seeing as Hood can PM me and Brock, and the IRC has become a Brazil-Chile discussion when me and Brock are there .

ooc:

Not too many years ago, under Eduard Land, the Dutch discussed leaving AANM for a SAE-Nordmark-Dutch alliance, which would be interesting. However Land's govt was voted out in part as SATSUMA pulled out of Cleito shortly before the elections, a more militaristic party came in.

From the Dutch perspective, SATSUMA's withdrawal from Cleito gave them a head start in new warship construction. The late 1930s/early 1940s then become a critical time period where the DEI are in dire danger. Hence the attempt to build up forces- including buying old SAE BBs, and festooning the DEI with coastal defenses, MTBs, more aircraft and ground forces. This allows the fleet to at least temporarily be engaged elsewhere.

This is also why there is little Dutch amphib capacity right now... haven't sprung the $ to refit the liners I reported purchased a couple years ago, plus the Iberians have some.

The reference to the Kingdom of Kandi is a hint though, any "invasion" of India would likely be best directed against Sri Lanka. It's strategically well positioned, but India would face transiting the straits, placing a supply choke point that limits their manpower advantage. Oil routes would be the other prime target, but messy.

Anyhow, this current period also gave rise to interest in alliance with Malay and Aussie forces which led to SAER. AEGIS retains importance and supplements SAER, but the support of the Commonwealth is of more import. Dutch actions in hypothetical conflicts have to be set against that critical strategic backdrop.

Direct Dutch action against SAE remains incredibly unlikely though, not only would it cause severe internal problems with the Kingdom of Kongo, but the Queen would refuse to endorse 99.9% of such actions.

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Originally posted by Kaiser Kirk
ooc:

Not too many years ago, under Eduard Land, the Dutch discussed leaving AANM for a SAE-Nordmark-Dutch alliance, which would be interesting. However Land's govt was voted out in part as SATSUMA pulled out of Cleito shortly before the elections, a more militaristic party came in.

From the Dutch perspective, SATSUMA's withdrawal from Cleito gave them a head start in new warship construction. The late 1930s/early 1940s then become a critical time period where the DEI are in dire danger. Hence the attempt to build up forces- including buying old SAE BBs, and festooning the DEI with coastal defenses, MTBs, more aircraft and ground forces. This allows the fleet to at least temporarily be engaged elsewhere.

This is also why there is little Dutch amphib capacity right now... haven't sprung the $ to refit the liners I reported purchased a couple years ago, plus the Iberians have some.

The reference to the Kingdom of Kandi is a hint though, any "invasion" of India would likely be best directed against Sri Lanka. It's strategically well positioned, but India would face transiting the straits, placing a supply choke point that limits their manpower advantage. Oil routes would be the other prime target, but messy.

Anyhow, this current period also gave rise to interest in alliance with Malay and Aussie forces which led to SAER. AEGIS retains importance and supplements SAER, but the support of the Commonwealth is of more import. Dutch actions in hypothetical conflicts have to be set against that critical strategic backdrop.

Direct Dutch action against SAE remains incredibly unlikely though, not only would it cause severe internal problems with the Kingdom of Kongo, but the Queen would refuse to endorse 99.9% of such actions.

I understood the reference to the Kingdom of Khandi but any attempt would end in failure IMO and that's why I didn't gave it a lot of thought. Too close to mainland India, this could be a replay of Guadalcanal but with the Indian only having to ferry troops a short distance and air-based aircrafts could be moved faster to the region than the AANM could ferry aircrafts and troops to the region. I agree could be bloody for India but again logistics (my pet peeve) are against the attacker plus ABUSE pretty much spells the Dutch have to cover Singapore also, and expect soem kind of UK reaction and Saint could force SAE into action also. IMO is military suicide and not worth the losses that a joint AANM will incur in this kind of operation.

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Originally posted by perdedor99
I understood the reference to the Kingdom of Khandi but any attempt would end in failure IMO and that's why I didn't gave it a lot of thought. Too close to mainland India, this could be a replay of Guadalcanal but with the Indian only having to ferry troops a short distance and air-based aircrafts could be moved faster to the region than the AANM could ferry aircrafts and troops to the region. I agree could be bloody for India but again logistics (my pet peeve) are against the attacker plus ABUSE pretty much spells the Dutch have to cover Singapore also, and expect soem kind of UK reaction and Saint could force SAE into action also. IMO is military suicide and not worth the losses that a joint AANM will incur in this kind of operation.

I mostly agree. Logistics are extremely important and often skipped. It's a matter of if one is to try a land war with India..where is it most advantageous. The simple fact India has to unload trains, load ferrys, transport across the strait, and then unload the ferrys inserts a supply bottleneck that wouldn't exist if someone was silly enough to try landing on the subcontinent. Further it is a bottleneck which is interdictable. However, invading Sri Lanka would be an Okinawa sized op, waaaaay big.

However, this to is why the Dutch haven't developed a large amphibious lift, invading India/Phillipines/China/Japan is not likely in the cards. Some additional lift for internal use, yeah I'll get to it.

As for the other treaties, I was leaving those out of it as the point and counter point can get complex, and there is always the what if about competing treaties and priorities.

Really its just too hard to think of why any of the SAE, India, UK, Dutch scenarios could occur. None of these nations have any reason to fight each other nor any reason to break their treaties with each other. The geographical details just makes any campaign unlikely or very difficult, imagine trying to take the DEI with the Dutch forces at their present strength, a 1941 sceanario just doesn't work in WW.

An SAE Vs Italy campaign would need a really good excuse too but I can't see Iberia or Denmark wanting to get too involved.

South America seems a possibilty in the future but not just yet, come back in 1943 and we'll see about a round two. Besides Argentina has other fish it wants to fry first...

Classic military blunder number 1; Never get involved in a land war in Asia.

Successfully invading the Indian subcontinent with it's 500m+ population is pretty much impossible for anyone. Much easier to focus on limiting India's capability to project power away from land so it is effectively neutralised.

I often thought about the situation in the Indian Ocean. It´s a good place to have a local war as access to it is somewhat limited. My problem with this scenarios is, that the two most interesting players here are allied, though their relationship probably has faded a bit from what it was in the 1920s. The SAE still has a floatplane base at the coast of the Indian main land and an airship field near Indias capital. Then there also is that joint naval base on Diego Garcia....

Other important players are the British, the Dutch and the Italians. All those parties have vital interest in the refion and remarkable forces to bear. The Dutch are a close ally of course but the Italians I always saw as some kind of rival in Africa while British are hard to tackle in general - however, the Indian Ocean probably is their weakest spot as they have no major bases and supply can be limited due to the somewhat remote location of the Indian Ocean. Diplomatic ties to the British are friendly and some treaty exists but it´s not as close as relations to the Dutch, Indians or Nords.

It should also be noted that most treaties are defensive, meaning an alliance is only triggered if one power is attacked. Hence nobody will be the bad guy and attack first. We found a solution to that dilemma for the ABS war but that won´t work everytime.

So the questions is how to generate a situation where the SAE (plus ally/allies) would go up against either the Italians and the British? And how could that conflict be interestingly enough balanced - as the SAE plus the Dutch plus the Indians can pretty much wipe anybody in the Indian Ocean (which is why the SAE feld it to be a save place during the ABS war)?

I once had a nice idea for a local Italian-SAE conflict but for something of a larger scale.... No ideas. :o(

The other option would be to project power beyond the borders of the Indian Ocean - eastward most likely. Here the SAE has no sphere of interest BUT should the Dutch be forced to fight, the SAE will surely stand ready to help - generating a situation completely different from South America where the SAE was forced to fight on its on soil.

So is there any chance for a fight for the NEI or any other scenario seeing the Dutch involved?

[EDIT: Sometimes I really wish Jason and I had agreed on having our two nations fight for all the small islands and stuff in the Indian Ocean. Could have meant a permanently interesting situation. But that chance has past and I also enjoyed all the joint stuff of the 1920s...]

An alternative "African war" situation could be the SAE vs one of the other countries with colonies in south-central Africa. That's really only Iberia, with it's holdings in Angola, until you get as far north as Chad and Niger, where you find the French, or the EAS, with the Italians.

The problem for the Dutch in any such war is that while they might like to support the SAE, they would have to be careful that such support did not bleed into Europe: the last thing the Dutch (should) want is a war that involves the Netherlands themselves.

I've been looking at the WW Map, certainly most of the UK's African colonies would be at threat from the Dutch/SAE forces.

However there are some points to bear in mind. While the DEI forces could wreak havoc with British forces what about Holland. The RN would clear the North Sea and Channel of every vessel with a Dutch ensign, the home ports would be blockaded, the RAF would flatten every important town and city in Holland. In Europe the GBN pact could be activated and Germany I'm sure wants some Western lebensraum. The Med would be totally locked and no reinforcements would reach the DEI, vessels going via the Cape would find RCN ships and RN forces at Bermuda and Falklands waiting. Yes the Far East might fall but given SEAR means the Brits and Dutch have closely co-operated on defence plans and bases etc likely both sides would have inimate knowledge of each others forces and plans. Likely Burma and Malaya would fall to determined Indian land offensives.

The DEI would also face RAN forces and they would make an impact in the Indian Ocean too. Forces from Iraq could threaten Persia and cut off their oil supplies. Likewise it would still be easy to seal off the Arabian Gulf and Red Sea and clear every enemy vessel. Russia too might make moves into Persia and Afganhistan. Then the RN Med Fleet comes down to play and the RN Atlantic Fleet via the West. The RSAN would feel the squeeze pretty quickly and if the ABC powers (or even just the A &B) took advantage it might be a serious loss to the SAE.

Such a conflict would mean heavy losses for the Commonwealth and perhaps loss of territory in Africa and the Far East. But the SAE and the Dutch would be crippled. The SAE would certianly loose Grand Uruguay and Holland would be devastated and only India would stand to gain as a contentinal super-power. Italy would not loose much either. Not a very happy prospect but it would drastically alter the balance of power in the eastern regions.

And if GB cried agression to NATO it could be even worse for the SAE. Now find a good enough reason for the SAE to be crazy enough to risk a serious super-smackdown contest over four continents.

The question would be whether the parties thought they could keep the fighting from spreading from Africa to other parts of the world. The SAE, given the state of the ABC powers, probably could think so (since the ABCs are in no condition to attack at the moment, and no other major powers are players in South America). Dutch involvement would make the fighting more likely to spread, because the Dutch are spread across the globe. Kongolese involvement could be .... finessed, perhaps, as they're on the African continent and are independent subjects of the Dutch crown. But as other Dutch involvement grows, so do the risks of a wider war.

Germany? Lebensraum? That's a term used by a dead political movement from the 20s. Of course, GBN being activated should be a major concern in this scenario for the Dutch, the last thing they'd want is to be fighting the UK and Germany.

Hood, you´ve made a world war out of this - which is not very likely. Diplomaty is not a field only the British can excell. The SAE has some ties as well, especially to Nordmark.

The questions is: Would all those treaties be really triggered? I doubt it.

I think you also exaggerated the British capability to project power to the Indian Ocean. All British bases in the region are likely to fall early, supply cannot be brought around Cape Good Hope and the Red Sea´s entrance into the Indian might be blocked. So there only is the way around South America and through the Pacific - a long way to go. In fact, most British bases in the Pacific may already be lost before supplements from the Home Lands could arrive.

Have you considered SATSUMA taking advantage of a weakened and already challanged GB?

See, these kind of scenarios can be painted two ways. There are just too many factors and players involved. So it´s all a matter of scripting, allowing some leeway who stays neutral or is only passively involved (i.e. the Dutch during ABS war).

It´s always easy to spread the fire, but from a scripting point this cannot be handled. So what´s the story to keep things local but interesting enough?

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Originally posted by HoOmAn

Have you considered SATSUMA taking advantage of a weakened and already challanged GB?

May be not SATSUMA as a whole, but parts of it
Since there is a small spot in my area ....

I'm just showing what could happen if things got out of control. Afterall if Britain faces losing her Empire why would she refrain from flattening Holland? Why would the Dutch naturally support the SAE if they went looking for trouble? The SAE would know the risk of a global war unless they played it very cool and careful, most wars aren't started by cool and careful heads.

The SAE would need damn good reasons to rattle anybody since their victory in South America was not total. Brazil crumbled but an ceasefire was signed with Argentina. The war could have gone on for another 6 months. The SAE was always going to win but some nations might ask why didn't the SAE do better.

To get mixed up in EAS the Africans need a good reason to disturb the staus quo in the Horn of Africa. I don't think they have one and if they use strongarm tactics like they used against Argentina like blockades and an "accident" happens what will other nations think of SAE and what will the foks at home think?
In that scenario of SAE Vs Italy I doubt think Britain would get involved unless Kenya was violated. Realisitically I can't see Britain risking too much over Africa.

The Kongo might be a potential source of trouble, maybe some rouge element of rebels operating across borders and causing mayhem would force both nations to blame each other and stumble into a border fight. (That's if terrian allows that).

The SAE could demand Namibia from the Brits but we'd laugh that one off. The SAE could easily invade it, the RN could blockade SAE with some naval battles but again what would SAE gain from that.

Really I don't think you need to worry about the UK unless someone starts poking the Lion while he's trying to sleep...

My two cents in regard to Hood's and Hoo scenarios.

Europe: I agree with Hood that with the British Empire being dismantled it makes sense for the British to tackle the Dutch directly. Force them to give back their gains afar on the negotiation table. Also closing the Suez Canal would help in making supply difficult for the Dutch-AANM-SAE forces. But I also agree with Hoo that their relationship with Nordmark precedes the GBN alliance and Nordmark could be a loose cannon in the British European plans. Also Hood states the RN in the South Atlantic will help in the interdiction of enemy supplies. IMO the SAE is the power in the South Atlantic. They will eliminate that force eventually if deemed necessary.

Africa/Med: IMO everything British south of Sudan will fall to a combined Dutch-SAE force. And if the AANM joints the fray you can see perhaps the fall of Egypt also. But lets not forget the Greeks have a defensive agreement with Britain to they could also enter the fray.

Asia: If the British are being attacked India will join them; if the SAE is being attacked we will support the SAE. Basically we are the wild card. Campaigns for India will be similar but IMO three results will be the same. First, the BNS will be decimated and India's projection of power into the Indian Ocean pretty much crushed. Second, Indian/Persian oil production will suffer but in a join the British scenario not as much and we possibly could invade Saudi Arabia to relieve Hedjaz. Of course attacking Saudi Arabia brings Turkey and friends into the fight. In a join the SAE British will attack from Iraq and that means oil production being wrecked. Not a good result for Inda. Third, Asia will change. In a join the British scenario jumping from Burma to conquer Siam with the excuse to relieve Malaya exists. On a join the SAE Burma will fall and India will suffer their service to help reduce Malaya and India will move the bulk of their forces to the West.

I tend to agree with Hoo that Satsuma could and IMO would take advantage of the situation. Either Macao or Hong Kong will "join" the Chinese Empire depending of how's losing, with all European territory close to Satsuma nations possiby expecting the same fate. Also agree with Hoo that British bases in the region are undefendable. Singapore is surrounded by enemy territory and bases in Kenya a very close to SAE territory. That pretty much leaves Australia as their main staging base.

Americas: Another wild card. IMO they will wait until a clear loser is on sight and jump on them. Argentina would not mind getting the Maldivas back for example and 2/3's of the ABC powers would not mind a rematch on their terms.

IMO with all the alliances we have is very difficult not to have a mini-world war.

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Originally posted by perdedor99
I tend to agree with Hoo that Satsuma could and IMO would take advantage of the situation. Either Macao or Hong Kong will "join" the Chinese Empire depending of how's losing, with all European territory close to Satsuma nations possiby expecting the same fate. Also agree with Hoo that British bases in the region are undefendable. Singapore is surrounded by enemy territory and bases in Kenya a very close to SAE territory. That pretty much leaves Australia as their main staging base.

If SATSUMA tries to upset the status quo in the Far East, there absolutely will be a world war, as FAR isn't going to accept a change in the current status quo. If SATSUMA attempts to take advantage of one power's distraction (be it Britain, Iberia, or the Netherlands), then it is expected that other territories will follow whenever SATSUMA has a good excuse. Thus - FAR fights when everybody's still standing, not when we're whittled down.

If SATSUMA tries to conquer anything, then there will be a world war to the finish.

<- is absolutely enjoying this topic...

UK+India vs SAE+Dutch presents some major problems to Australia. Very friendly with the Dutch and would love to set the Indians in their place, but tied to the Commonwealth. Now SAE+India vs Uk... fun!

An option would be to have the war start in the Caribbean and then somehow move to Southern Africa...

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So is there any chance for a fight for the NEI or any other scenario seeing the Dutch involved?

In the NEI, I think any such scenario would simply lead to general war.
Hypothetically, a SATSUMA landing on Hianan Do could trigger AEGIS and not SAER. I always figured the Indian fleet would be the first casualty of such a conflict as AEGIS secured it’s LOC.

Siam + AEGIS vs. FAR has also been possible, but frankly the way the former Siam player was acting, I think the Dutch would cut their losses, much like Peru fell out of bounds.

Given the relative powers, landings in the NEI could then occur. Even minor anchorages have on outlying islands have some defenses, which should make the conquest much more grinding and set piece, not swift. However, the Commonwealth/FAR can not afford to see SATSUMA take the region, nor can Iberia or Denmark.

A far less likely scenario would be the UK/Aussies against the Dutch, which would hard to fathom as it would make all the nations involved quite vulnerable to the SATSUMA horde next door.

So conflict in NEI is unlikely unless we all start collaborating hard.

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The problem for the Dutch in any such war is that while they might like to support the SAE, they would have to be careful that such support did not bleed into Europe: the last thing the Dutch (should) want is a war that involves the Netherlands themselves.

Agreed. Because AANM was opposed to FAR… which has always made me wonder why the Dutch were in AANM with France next door… the Dutch have worked on the home defenses, but I don’t pretend they can do much more than slow down the French. The scenario gets a bit better as Belgium would likely sit out and make the French go around.

Germany is not a likely foe, and the combination of Belgo-Dutch forces, Dutch forts, and Italy/Denmark on the edges makes that better…of course there is Nordmark.

The UK…. How the heck to avoid that? Very painful.

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However there are some points to bear in mind. While the DEI forces could wreak havoc with British forces what about Holland. The RN would clear the North Sea and Channel of every vessel with a Dutch ensign, the home ports would be blockaded, the RAF would flatten every important town and city in Holland.

Pretty much. I think the RAF’s capacity right now isn’t quite there, and perhaps the neutrals in the conflict would object, but the rest is a bad proposition for the Dutch. This actually is where a Nordmark-SAE alliance would have helped, giving significant North Sea forces. AEGIS isn’t quite as well situated, but would leave everything outside the UK in tatters….but Holland would suffer the brunt.

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I think you also exaggerated the British capability to project power to the Indian Ocean. All British bases in the region are likely to fall early, supply cannot be brought around Cape Good Hope and the Red Sea´s entrance into the Indian might be blocked. So there only is the way around South America and through the Pacific - a long way to go. In fact, most British bases in the Pacific may already be lost before supplements from the Home Lands could arrive.

I think a Dutch-SAE- UK conflict would be very bad for the Dutch, and the Brits. The Indian Ocean would not be hospitable. I think the Red Sea and Cape Horn would be closed to the Brits, which looses them their oil supply. Forces in Grand Uruguay would close the South American route. Supplies over the Pacific would have to be routed south of Australia. Add in SAE/Kongo forces and much of Afrika is at risk.

The best point is… can the Brits count on others not playing vulture? I don’t think so.

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The Kongo might be a potential source of trouble, maybe some rouge element of rebels operating across borders and causing mayhem would force both nations to blame each other and stumble into a border fight. (That's if terrian allows that).

The terrain allows in Rhodesia…but the political background does not, at least until the Queen passes in the 1950s. It’s far more likely that the Kongo may seek some independent alliance/union with SAE than conflict.

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Originally posted by Desertfox
<- is absolutely enjoying this topic...

UK+India vs SAE+Dutch presents some major problems to Australia. Very friendly with the Dutch and would love to set the Indians in their place, but tied to the Commonwealth. Now SAE+India vs Uk... fun!

An option would be to have the war start in the Caribbean and then somehow move to Southern Africa...

????? Hmmmm. The only way I can see that working is if the SAE saw an opening to take Angola because of Iberia being busy elsewhere....