WesWorld

I agree with Perdedor's general assessment. The Czechs should at least be making a lot of noise about trying to comply, even if the changes are trickling down slowly.

If changes are slow, Germany will continue to press. There's no need for the changes to be slow, they're statutory changes, the holdup is political stalling.

Diplomatically, the Dutch will let the Czechs know that they need to treat their German (and Slovak) population as equal to the Czech, and work to ensure economic prosperity. Failure to do so gives credence to the German concerns, which they are legally entitled to bring due to their being the homeland of that minority. The Dutch are far more inclined to a Czech-German funded voluntary resettlement than other solutions should matters fail to improve.

The Belgians will be telling the Czechs not to give in, Germans are never satisfied.

Luxembourg will tell them not to cause an incident.

Quoted

Originally posted by Kaiser Kirk
Diplomatically, the Dutch will let the Czechs know that they need to treat their German (and Slovak) population as equal to the Czech, and work to ensure economic prosperity. Failure to do so gives credence to the German concerns, which they are legally entitled to bring due to their being the homeland of that minority. The Dutch are far more inclined to a Czech-German funded voluntary resettlement than other solutions should matters fail to improve.

The Belgians will be telling the Czechs not to give in, Germans are never satisfied.

Luxembourg will tell them not to cause an incident.

Heh, got to love conflicting suggestions on what to do.

Every nation has different histories, precedents and priorities.

Which is why International politics swiftly produces natural consensus and swift decisive action by countries willing to pour money and blood into joint actions for no gain... oh wait...maybe it's the other way around.

The Dutch are caught between the twin problems of strengthening international rules, and holding that borders are sancrosect.

"borders are sacrosanct"

Germany needs only to look to the east to see how untrue THAT is, not to mention the Belgian annexation of Eupen and Malmedy in (historically) 1925 (I expect in WW that it took place in 1918-1919).


But certainly it's understood why the different countries would give different advice, I was just laughing at the variety of the advice and wondering how the Czechs would take the advice. I'd expect they'll pay more attention to the Dutch view than the others, simply because the Dutch are a bigger player in the world. Of course, the Belgian POV might well resonate with the Czechs and cause them to get their backs up and refuse to make any changes.

[OOC: a decision has to be made by someone what the Czechs have done over the course of 1936, so Germany can decide what to do in response.]

IMHO timeline of events and probable outcomes:

1) The League received the German request.

2) Czech studied the issue. They already had being burned with the Teschen situation even when it seemed they won. (IIRC League police officers in place to stop attacks against Polish minority and referendum in five years from 1935. The region has a Polish majority so must likely they will lose.) Good thing was to see Russia willing to fight for them and we need to verify if OTL French-Czech agreements are in place.

3) IMO Czechoslovakia will stall, dragging their feet in regard to political improvements for the minorities but at the same time making possible for them to show progress to the League. IMO their concern will be that if they cave-in now, who will be next? The Hungarians? Even maybe the Russians? the Slovaks decide to break free?

4) On the other hand are France and Russia ready to fight for the Sudetenland? This is not Hitler's Germany bullying everyone. They have being reasonable in the presentation to the League; but IMO the Russian and French will look like they are selling out an ally if Treaties are really in place. But that didn't stop OTL France anyway.

5) A very delicate situation indeed. So what will the Czech will do? IMO they will cave in and give the political liberties requested to the Sudeten Germans short of a referendum.

While I generally agree with Perdedor's analysis - mostly on the basis of wanting to see Czechoslovakia maintained as-is - two things he said about Teschen confused me.

Quoted

Originally posted by perdedor99
League police officers in place to stop attacks against Polish minority

Quoted

Originally posted by perdedor99
The region has a Polish majority so must likely they will lose.

...um, what?

Quoted

Originally posted by Brockpaine
While I generally agree with Perdedor's analysis - mostly on the basis of wanting to see Czechoslovakia maintained as-is - two things he said about Teschen confused me.

Quoted

Originally posted by perdedor99
League police officers in place to stop attacks against Polish minority

Quoted

Originally posted by perdedor99
The region has a Polish majority so must likely they will lose.

...um, what?

Polish minority for the country but they are a majority in Teschen.

Any input from Russia, France, the UK, Italy?

I believe a statement confirming some kind of backing for Germany was made back in 1935 when the Nordish-Germano-Anglo Non-Agression Pact was signed.

The UK is likely to back Germany and put diplomatic pressure on the Czechs. That is not to say the gov't agrees with a policy of expansion via racial grouping in central Europe but redress must be given in areas where problems may affect law and order.
Since Germany already has Austria there is little effective pressure that can be made to bear to stop any further advancement.

Plus since there are no Nazis around things should go more lawfully with proper elections rather than rolling the tanks in and taking over and whipping up the Sudeten Germans to making trouble.

Average Joe Bloggs has never even heard of Czechoslovakia let alone the Sudetenland so I can't see much public outcry in Britain.

Russia will support Czechoslovakia diplomatically, but understands that they have no real way to assist Czechoslovakia in the event of war. RF government will help the Czechoslovak government get the best deal they can.

There is no treaty relationship between Czechoslovakia and Russia, although then-Foreign Minister Chicherin visited Prague in November 1930. And with no Hitler, the Czechoslovaks may not have built the Sudeten fortifications, whch were started, IIRC, in 1934.

When I was France, I didn't establish an alliance with Czechoslovakia.

Quoted

Originally posted by Hrolf Hakonson
"borders are sacrosanct"

Germany needs only to look to the east to see how untrue THAT is, not to mention the Belgian annexation of Eupen and Malmedy in (historically) 1925 (I expect in WW that it took place in 1918-1919).

The Belgian annexation I presume occurred. The problem of minorities (Luxembourg, Dutch, Francophile and Germanic) are why the Belgian response is simply not to give in. They view international approval of minorities breaking off parts of a country as a potential precedent. Very recently, the Belgian depression had led to issues with the Flemish north, which were largely solved by picking the Dutch Queen.

As for the Dutch, on the one hand it's in their interest to see a strong and stable international body, so the rules of the LON- which includes Germany speaking for oppressed German minorities, are to be endorsed.

However they look to places like Wilno and see an outside power seducing a minority with false promises of prosperous independence...shades of...SATSUMA!.

So thier policy is that the minoritys should have a voice, should not be oppressed, and if they can't get along, should be helped to return to thier "home" nation- leaving borders alone as much as possible. Considering the history of the Studeten Germans is they were invited to immigrate to Bohemia (as I recall), it seems off to then allow them to split off a chunk of Bohemia

As for Dutch influence with the Czechs, we have substantial trade and are good friends to both Czechs and Germans, with no reason to see either party suffer.

Polish Hat on:

The Poles are of two minds on the issue at hand, while they also have their issues with the Czechs, they do not wish for Germany to get any stronger than she is already.

The Poles would like to have the Germans clarify the issue here, does Germany want the Sudetenland? Bohemia/Moravia as well? What about the fate of those Czechs who live in the Sudetenland? Or is Germany just seeking better treatment of the Germans living there?

The Polish will support Germany on the latter proposal. However, if the Germans wish for the Sudetenland territories in full, then Poland would give its full support to Czechslovakia, and would even be willing to sacrifice its Teschen crisis gains as insurance to the Czechs, if in exchange Germany gained no more territory. His Majesty feels that Germany has quite enough territory as it is, and if they want the Sudeten Germans so bad, then they can move them to Germany.

Romanian Hat:

Romania takes essentially the same stand as Poland, however she would take the even more drastic step of gasp allowing Russian troops to pass through her borders should Germany want the Sudeten territories in full, and if Russia wishes to fight for the Czechs. However, she would support Germany if all Germany wishes for is better treatment of the Sudeten Germans, specifically the teaching of German as well as Czech in schools in the Sudetenland, as well as equal employment for Germans in Czechslovakia. '

OOC: This should raise some eyebrows!

I'll admit, that raised my eyebrows!

Shrug, well better wait for the FAR puppet thing to start.

I should also mention, if Russia wanted say Finland for example, and could bring forth evidence that the Finns there were being illtreated and wanted Russia to "protect" them, then Poland/Romania would give the same support to the Nord/Germans.

Poland/Romania like the borders just the way they are. Sure Poland would like the territories prior to the Partitions, and Romania wouldn't mind Bessarabia. Poland can even put forth a weak claim to both Bohemia and Hungary, due to the fact that the Polish Jagiellons ruled there from 1471 to 1526. However, such claims would upset the balance of power, which is in Poland/Romania's interest to maintain, hence the strong language in the reply. It is in Poland/Romania's interests that none of the Great Powers gain anymore territory in Eastern Europe, and we will play one off against the other to ensure that it doesn't happen.

What is Germany after? Germany wants the discrimination and unfair treatment of the German people in the Sudetenland region stopped. This unfair treatment results in complaints, unrest, and instability on her borders, and it results in bad feelings between neighbors that are unnecessary..

How to do that? The simplest and best way is for the Czech government to remember it's responsibilities under the Treaty on Minorities and change it's laws and it's behavior, most especially the employment laws and the laws encouraging settlement. Czechoslovakia is not the private fiefdom of the Czechs, after all.

A more complicated way to solve the problem is to move the border, giving the Sudetenland to Germany as the local inhabitants demonstrated they wanted in 1918-1919. This does NOT include Bohemia or Moravia or any other part of the country, just the Sudetenland. This would be a much more complicated procedure, involving some sort of vote that the people of the region WANT to join the Reich, followed by negotiations between the Czech and German governments over compensation and assistance in moving border defences, setting up contracts for power, a system to compensate any who do not wish to live under German laws, etc. To answer the question about the Czech minority in the Sudetenland under this case, they would be compensated for their losses if they chose to return to Czechoslovakia or they would be full citizens of Germany if they chose to stay, with all the rights and responsibilities thereof. Efforts would be made to assist them in learning the primary language of the country, but there are certainly other minorities within the borders of the Reich who speak German as a second language who are prospering.


Germany would prefer the simpler procedure of the Czechs obeying the Treaty they signed up to, it should lead to a better environment faster.

Quoted

Originally posted by Hrolf Hakonson
Germany would prefer the simpler procedure of the Czechs obeying the Treaty they signed up to, it should lead to a better environment faster.

This appears by far to be the statement I've heard over and over again in this debate. So why don't we just agree: the Czechs have altered the laws and conditions as the Germans and all the other neighbors requested, and have satisfied the German government of their cooperation. Since we all seem to agree that this is our preferred course, then why not make it official and end the debate?

Probably because while it makes sense, and it's easy, it's also (in some ways) NOT the likely realistic answer.

For the Czechs to do so, they'll essentially have to (by their actions at least) admit that they have been breaking the Treaty on Minorities, at least in the case of the Sudetenland. How often do you see a country admit this sort of thing? Not to mention that the changes required would NOT play well in the Czech portion of the populace, the segment of the populace that the government of Czechoslovakia is catering to and draws it's strength from, which has been gaining at the expense of the German portion of the populace.

I'd suggest that it's probably more in keeping with governments that the Czechs would either not allow the League's investigators to enter the country, or that the Czechs would simply ignore any calls to change (Sudan and Darfur come to mind as current examples). After all, no one has explicitly threatened the use of force, and Germany (the troublemaker, from the Czech point of view) can't really hurt the Czech's economically without also hurting the Sudeten Germans. Besides, right now the Czech armed forces are at worst the same size as the German armed forces, equipped about as well, and there are well-designed prepared defenses along the Czech-German border. OK, these defenses are somewhat outflanked by the incorporation of Austria into Germany, and the fact that the defenses are in the Sudetenland means that they're likely not going to be a surprise in the event of hostilities (hostile local population), but still…..

Then I'm not sure what the point of this discussion is...

We all appear to agree that the Czechs agreeing to the German request is the smartest move of the options open to them at present. We've also apparently agreed that we don't want Czechoslovakia to give up any land, full stop. It appears to me there is no more need for debate, unless you'd like a moderator ruling on behalf of Czechoslovakia to say 'yes' or 'no'...?