Copenhagen, Denmark
Wednesday, April 21st, 1948
"A pity you're so soon to leave us," Kommandør Hans Mikkelsen offered, as he took a sip of his wine and settled back into his overstuffed armchair. "Do you know yet what ship you're going to get?"
"No idea," Capitaine de vaisseau Philippe Delcroix replied. He paused before offering his speculation. "But I'm supposed to report to La Rochelle within the next two weeks for new construction. That probably means one of the new Lafayette class cruisers."
"My congratulations," Mikkelsen replied. "From what I've seen, those will be impressive ships. Your French yards do know how to built beautiful warships."
"Thank you, Hans," Delcroix responded. "I've not seen photographs yet, but I saw a one-forty-eighth model the last time I was in Paris." As the French naval attache to Denmark, Delcroix was 'paying his dues', getting in some time at a shore station before returning to sea. It had been a good opportunity, and his wife Marie had become good friends with Mikkelsen's wife, Agnes. That, in turn, had opened up a friendship with Mikkelsen himself, who was aide-de-camp to the Royal Danish Navy's commanding admiral, A.H. Vedel.
"So tell me, Philippe," Mikkelsen said. "What do you think of Donnerschlag? These big German naval exercises, ja?"
Philippe smiled to himself. This was a carefully-cultivated relationship, both by the Danes on the one hand, and the French on the other: Mikkelsen delivering carefully-worded messages disguised as fireside chit-chat, and Delcroix responding in kind. It was a way for the two countries to communicate outside the more formal diplomatic channels. "Well," Delcroix replied, "I think it was rather provocative of the Germans."
"They certainly know how to prod the British lion into a nationalistic fit," Mikkelsen agreed. "Marinestabens Efterretningssektion has been quite busy watching it all, when they could spare the eyes."
"The Royal Navy is too self-controlled to entirely play the game," Delcroix said. "They knew it was an exercise, and they responded in a manner designed to mislead. I know my associates in the Admiralstab were surprised by the British movement through St. George's Channel and the Irish Sea, but I don't believe any of them actually suppose it's part of the British war doctrine. They would respond more aggressively in an actual war. But the British have entirely fixated upon their nightmare of a German threat." Delcroix talked for another ten minutes, sharing his thoughts - and by extension, the professional opinion of the entire Marine Nationnale, which Mikkelsen would in turn report to his boss.
"The analysis of our staff seems to imply the British would have been severely hurt, had Donnerschlag actually been a live operation," Mikkelsen said. "German losses would probably have been low, mostly down to aircraft and submarines."
"Indeed, aircraft and submarines," Delcroix said, smiling behind his wineglass.
"Ja," Mikkelsen said. "The RAF's show of force last night caused quite a bit of anxiety last night to my comrades in the Hærens Flyvertropper. And I wish you could have seen the ruffled feathers between the Ministry of Defense and Foreign Affairs this last week..."
"Oh yes?" Delcroix asked. He'd heard quiet rumors here and there, but nothing firm.
"The Russians asked us on the 13th about foreign submarines in the Baltic, but nobody in our office figured they'd seriously found one," Mikkelsen said. "Admiral Vedel ordered us to start an investigation when he finally heard about it on the 15th - the same day Wolverine sailed out the Oresund - and Rasmussen in Foreign Ministry was out most of that day and the 16th. Admiral Vedel wasn't able to brief him before the German ambassador came in to catch him flatfooted."
Delcroix nodded. "I know my German counterpart, Bartels, received word early on the 15th."
"Yes. Admiral Vedel and I were up in Aarhus until the afternoon, if you'll recall," Mikkelsen said. "Nielsen met us on our return with the Russian tip-off, and said he'd watched the Wolverine sail right past Copenhagen. It was sloppy staff work, Philippe - I say this as head of Vedel's staff! - and poor initiative, and poor communication. Everyone who knew refused to made a decision, and nobody pushed it up the chain of command urgently enough. It still might very well be my job, and Admiral Vedel's," he opined.
"The German press is ablaze," Delcroix said.
"Yes, we know. Gehlen's agents are stirring them up. Ekstra Bladet apparently has something particularly excoriating for tomorrow's print run," Mikkelsen said, clenching a fist and bouncing it twice off the arm of his chair. "It's really quite infuriating. The Germans didn't talk to us until it was too late for us to act, and then they rant and rave because we didn't do anything."
"If you could have...?"
"Of course," Mikkelsen said. "Admiral Vedel gave orders on the 15th to halt and detain British submarines - whether inbound to or outbound from the Baltic. One of our destroyers followed Wolverine through the Oresund, but the submarine was already past Helsingor when the Vedel's order arrived. The captain radioed for instructions, but by then it was too late. An hour, Philippe. One hour."
"It's probably for the best," Delcroix said. "If the submarine hadn't gotten out, then you would have had a real diplomatic crisis."
"Yes - the Germans probably demanding that we seize the boat, and the British trying to prevent it," Mikkelsen said. He took a deep breath. "You know Kommandør Arnesen?"
"Isn't he the commander of your coast defense squadron at Korsør?"
"Ja. He was sacked today. Somebody had to play the sacrificial lamb, and his command was the only one that might have caught the British submarine sneaking through the Great Belt." Mikkelsen sat back again in his chair. "The simple fact of the matter is that - as you know, and the Russians know, and the Germans and British know - we don't usually deploy any ships in the Great Belt intended to search for submarine infiltration."
"Probably ought to change," Delcroix said.
"Yes," Mikkelsen said. "We're not sure exactly how we'll do that yet, but MOD is quite keen to ensure we plug the gap as soon as possible. Foreign Affairs wasn't able to confront the British ambassador about the whole affair until after the Wolverine left. And without a submarine being held by one of our boarding parties, our leverage is gone. Randall gave Rasmussen all the expected excuses, and then had the nerve to asked for an agreement to make occasional infiltration missions in the future."
"Oh, really?" Delcroix said, as innocently as he could manage. This was a very interesting revelation indeed.
"They offered to share intelligence in exchange for us letting the occasional submarine sneak through," Mikkelsen said. "As if we weren't already better placed to spy on the Germans from shore stations, without the need for submarines. Ours, or British."
"How did your government respond?"
"Rasmussen gave a non-committal response, and we've yet to return with an answer. There's no chance we'll permit it, of course," Mikkelsen said. "It takes all of the risks off the British and puts it all on us, with the only reward being information we're already able to collect ourselves. More reliably, I might add - and without someone in London having the ability to selectively leave anything out."
"I'm surprised," Delcroix said carefully, "that Randall didn't offer to give you British electronics - or money - in exchange for a take from Marinestabens Efterretningssektion."
"We were surprised ourselves," Mikkelsen agreed. "After floating around MOD over the last few days, one of the ideas which has gained traction is that the British - perhaps rightly, or perhaps wrongly - believe Russian or German agents have penetrated the Marinestabens Efterretningssektion, or perhaps Generalstabens Efterretningssektion. Thus," Mikkelsen said, smiling broadly, "the British won't trust any information we develop ourselves."
"It's a thought, I suppose," Delcroix agreed, resolving to tip off the German and Russian 'cultural attaches' about the rumors. If they did have agents in place, then perhaps they could take steps to protect them. "So what do plan going forward?"
"Well," Mikkelsen said thoughtfully, a twinkle in his eye. "We expect that the Germans will aim to... remind us of their proximity, balanced against the distance of Britain. As the saying goes, 'pity those who have enemies close at hand and friends afar off.' As if we need the reminder. Hopefully, they will be restrained about it; with Folketing elections later this year, a heavy-handed response could turn the government to favor Britain despite it all."
"I'm sure that my government - and the Russians - will advise our allies to act in a circumspect and conciliatory manner," Delcroix said. "Have you talked with the Nordish, perhaps?"
"Not much," Mikkelsen said. "They have concerns, but defense is increasingly moving lower and lower on the list, given their upcoming elections; the Norwegian and Icelandic independence parties might build up enough of a minority to cause quite a lot of very interesting things to happen."
"Paris still isn't convinced," Delcroix admitted. "People have predicted the breakup of Nordmark, and the Swedish Empire before that, since the early 17th Century."
"Yes, we'll see," Mikkelsen said. "But in the meantime, Nordish eyes are firmly planted on their social and cultural issues, not defense. It might be worthwhile to discuss once again the topic of purchasing new electronics - radio-teledetection and sonar systems alike," Mikkelson added. "Of course, you've supplied us with good equipment in the past."
In other words, a subtle: 'what can you give me?' Delcroix had fortunately prepared for this. "Well, as you've noted, you have a gaping hole in your defense, in the Great Belt particularly. Back at the end of the Great War, the British built an underwater network to watch the entrances to Scapa Flow - a mix of hydrophones and magnetic tripwires. Amongst other things, we could help in that regard..."