WesWorld

This is just a first try. It still has to be reviewed by the nations involved (China and Japan) and thus is subject to change.
Any commments, concerns?



November 1943: -Chosen troops consolidate their defensive line
-China renews its offensive with a massive assault on Fengcheng
-Japanese Volunteer Brigade is attempting to smash the Chinese bridgehead at Donggang
-Chosen troops successfully defend Fengcheng
-Chosen submarines sink 7 Chinese merchants
-Chosen is sending a delegation to SAE to negotiate about future armament deals
-new equipment (tanks, small arms, artillery) from Japan arrives


December 1943: -Japanese Volunteer Brigade is unable to recapture Donggang and is redeployed to another frontsector
-heavy Chinese assaults on Kuandian and Huanren
-Chosen supreme command decides to take the front back to the China-Chosen border
-Chinese airforces suffers heavy casualties due to the Japanese Volunteer Squadron
-Chosen submarines sink 9 Chinese merchants, one submarine is lost


January 1944: -several Chosen fieldcommanders get replaced due to "incompetence"
-all Chosen troops have left Chinese soil
-Jong Un holds his famous "fate of Asia" speech.
-Chosen Army troops entrench themselves along the border
-Chosen submarines sink 8 merchants and one destroyer
-Chosen Navy Battlefleet 1 begins to operate in the China Sea in order to intercept Chinese merchant ships


February 1944: -situation along the border is still quiet, Chosen troops enhance their defences while Chinese troops prepare for a spring offensive.
-artillery duells and aerial warfare along the border
-Chosen Navy Battlefleet 1 encounters a Chinese cruiser taskforce, after several hours of heavy naval combat 2 Chinese heavy cruisers as well as 3 destroyers are sunk, serveral other vessels suffer considerable damage. Chosen loses 2 destroyers, RCN Tange (CL) suffers moderate damage
-Battlefleet 1 is steaming back to base
-just 150km south of Jeju-Do Battlefleet 1 comes under attack from Chinese dive and torpedo bombers, Chosen fighters from Jeju-Do fail to intercept the attackers, Chosen loses RCN Dairen (BC), RCN (Rashomon (CA) and RCN Tange (CL)






March 1944: -Japan officially intervenes, an expedition corps of 150,000 men is landing on the Korean Peninsula, two Japanese airfleets redeploy to Chosen.
-Chosen deploys 4 new Tankdivisions
-Chinese troop concentrations along the frontline are spotted by airrecon

April 1944: -Chinese spring offensive starts
-Chinese troops capture Sinuiju, Chosan, Hyesan and Hoeryong
-due to the difficult terrain and the Chosenian fortifications Chinese forces are advancing slowly and suffer massive casualties


May 1944: -heavy combat along the whole frontline

June 1944: -Chinese forces capture Chongju, Kanggye and Undok


July 1944: -Chinese forces renew their offensive on the ground and in the air


autumn 1944: -Chosenian 8th Army (northeastern sector) collapses
-Chinese forces capture Chongjin, Paekam, Phungso, Tongsin
-Japan sends additional troops, total japanese strength raises to 280,000


winter 1944/45: stalemate


spring 1945: -civilian economy of Chosen almost collapsing (shortages on food and other consumer goods)
-nearly two million civilians flee to the southern part of Chosen
-Japan sends supplies to Chosen
-Chosen supreme command is indecisive about a strategy to counter the Chinese invasion
-Chinese amphibious operation at Jeju-Do


summer 1945: -Chinese launch another major offensive
-battle of Jeju-Do still indecisive
-Chosen long range submarines operate in the pacific against mexican shipping

August 1945: -Chinese troops capture the provinces of Hamgyong-pukto, Ryanggang-do, Pyongan-pukto and Chagang-do
-last Chosenian defenders on Jeju-Do surrender

September 1945: -Chinese troops achieve a breakthrough at Anju, capture Sukchon and Taedong within two weeks and reach the ourskirts of Pyongyang
-Chosens capital is relocated to Seoul
-Chosens government agencies and ministries are evacuated to Seoul

October 1945: -Chinese troops are assaulting Pyongyang
-Japan sends additional troops to Chosen (450,000 in total)


Winter 1945: -limited Chinese advances in northeastern Chosen
-battle of Pyongyang ongoing
-Chinese forces capture the northern part of Pyongyang
-Chinese airforce begins attakcs on southern Chosen from airbases on Jeju-Do


March 1946: -Chinese forces capture Pyongyang
-Chosen generals overthrow Jong Uns government, Jong Un is detained and executed


April 1946: -Chosens new military government asks China for a cease fire and for peace negotiations, China refuses


May 1946: - Chinese tanks reach the outskirts of Seoul but fail to smash the Chosen defensive line
- Japan sends additional forces, total strength rises to 920,000
- Japan starts strategic bombing campaign against Chinese coastal cities

June 1946: -Japanese/Chosen counteroffensive starts
-Japanese/Chosen forces recapture Pyongyang and cut off more than 600.000 Chinese soldiers


July 1946: -Chinese troops start an operation in order to relieve the isolated forces but are unable to link up with them


August 1946: -Japanese/Chosen forces attack the Chinese pocket which is only supplied by sea and air
-the size of the pocket is reduced after heavy combat


September 1946: -Chinese morale within the pocket drops, evacuation by sea begins


October 1946: -Japanese/Chosen forces launch a final offensive to destroy the trapped Chinese forces
-280,000 Chinese soldiers surrender
-Japan suspends the strategic bombing campaign


November 1946: -China agrees to a cease fire
-peace negotiations begin between China and Chosen




January 1947: - after protracted negotiations Chosen agrees to the following: all Chinese POWs in CHosen custody are released; the provinces of Hamgyong-pukto, Ryanggang-do, Pyongan-pukto, Chagang-do, Pyongan-namdo and Hamgyong-namdo as well as the Island Jeju-Do are annexed by China; no Chosen troops are allowed north of the 38th degree of latitude; all Japanese troops must have left the Korean peninsula by 31st July 1947; Chosen has to destroy its entire stockpile of chemical ordnance.

Two words and one punctuation mark spring to mind: HOLY CARP!



A few comments come to mind, seeing this whole thing from the broad view.
1. This timeline, if followed, will mean the Indochinese Plebiscite in October 1945 is probably going to be strongly in favor of remaining as an autonomous member state of the French Union, rather than striking out independently. The perception in Indochina by that time will probably be such that they'll fear independence is an invitation to Chinese invasion.
2. How in the devil can China invade Jeju-do if Japan is officially intervening against them? That would be a monumentally stupid maneuver on China's part - and letting it not only happen, but succeed, would be apocalyptically stupid of the Japanese, who'd then have Chinese troops in springboard distance of Japan. Let's review the facts - China's got a numerically impressive navy, but it's woefully second-rate in terms of quality. The same cannot be said of the IJN, which ought to be able to curbstomp the Chinese fleet within a few days campaigning. The Chinese amphibious lift capability is over-rated: there is only enough dedicated amphibious lift for about 2,400 troops, hardly enough to take Jeju-do in the face of any sort of serious resistance. China cannot realistically invade and resupply by air only: it's over five hundred kilometers from the Chinese mainland to Jeju-do, which is too far for gliders, and cannot be managed there-and-back-again by loaded Chinese transport planes. All Japan needs to do is post a carrier or two off Jeju-do and run CAP...
3. The peace settlement does not appear to reflect the end of the war. Korea and Japan appear to have retaken much of the northern part of the country and inflict a massive defeat on China... and inexplicably give up in the negotiations? This doesn't make any sense to me yet. MAAAAYBE I could see a divided Korea, with North Korea as a a Chinese puppet state...
4. Finis Chosen, effectively.
5. ...Finis Japan as a Great Power and regional hegemon. To accept peace on these terms, after so clearly backing Korea, will be an unacceptable loss of face for Japan. It will hand cultural hegemony to China for a generation.
6. I can see why you hinted there will be a second Sino-Korean War. Wait a few years for Korea+Japan to rebuild their forces, then blitz and re-take North Korea and Jeju-do from the Chinese...
7. I have majorly under-reacted to this war.

Holy ... Heck

Really man, Chosen got humilliated and lost territory, Japan might lose prestige and regained an enemy in China

China got the winning steak here but with what appears more problems in the horizon, does it worth it?

I really thought Japan and China would go to open war

Moderate your language, please...
Edit: Thank you.

Quoted from "Brockpaine"

Moderate your language, please...
Edit: Thank you.

thanks for the warning by the way

A couple of my own thoughts as well:

Japan has a massive naval advantage, why aren't they using it as they did IOTL?
I am of two minds on the increased Japanese intervention. On one hand, the US is against this sort of frivolousness, and should place sanctions on Japan including an oil embargo. On the other hand, Japan's going to lose a buckeload of people in this war, and if two powers which much of the West has been concerned about spend 4 years tearing each other apart, why should the US attempt to halt it by stemming the flow of oil to Japan? So long as the fighting stays within the Korean peninsula and doesn't threaten American interests in the area of course. Now Japan can get oil from other sources I suppose, still can they supply as much as the US can?

Quoted from "doorcf"

China got the winning steak here but with what appears more problems in the horizon, does it worth it?

Well, I would say an emphatic 'No'. As it stands now, I think the Europeans nations with strong territorial interests in the region - France, Britain, Iberia, Russia - and more distantly those nations allied to the same, will be getting very skittish watching this unfold. Letting China actually succeed in annexing anybody's territory, even a power as unpopular and unpalatable as Chosen's current regime, sets a very bad precedent. Chosen's a nasty little serpent, but they're harmless in comparison to what China can do.

We had a similar set of difficulties during the Persian Civil War. Either you supported the Nationalists (who would have tried invading the neighbors after the war in the quest for 'Greater Persia') or you supported the Loyalists (allowing expansionist India to achieve a dual monarchy in Southwest Asia) or you supported neither.

This is certainly a major war.

My concerns is that the 1946 timeline seems far too optimistic.
The should probably end in March/April 1946. Chosen by than has lost most of its cities and industrial strength, Japan is going to have to maintain its own armed forces and that of Chosen. The Japanese force of 920,000 sounds a lot but how much of the Chosen Army will be left? By then China is going to have millions under arms, by 1946 it will probably have more than replaced its losses from 1944 and if it rotates units etc. would have lost little of its actual strength. Your fighting effectively the Red Army in OTL terms, it mass alone would crush Chosen at that tipping point in early 1946.
The pocket of 600,000 with 280,000 finally surrendering is a pinprick to China's strength by this time.Even so, its no Stalingrad, it took another two years to destroy the German forces from that point onward. Here your facing much larger odds. Of course it might bring China to the diplomatic table, especially if its coastal cities are feeling the brunt of aerial bombing and if the IJN has blockaded China's maritime approaches (though that risks sinking neutral shipping etc.).

Basically during this time as long as China and Japan are locked into a war the rest of us can breath easier from threats to our own empires/ allied territories but we can also use this time to build up the military strength there too. It will, as Brock says, probably hinder the independence movements a bit. Also at the war's end China and Japan will be left isolated and friendless without even each other as allies.

Much to think about and plan...

I will try to answer some of the question and try to clarify things a bit...however until China and Japan give their approval nothing is final.

1. Concerning the Jeju-Do operation....I have to admit I haven't thought too much about the Chinese sea transport capacity, I just made some assumptions. I will discuss the matter with China. I came up with the idea mostly because I thought it would be an interesting scenario and a diversion from the tedious ground war on the mainland. The more I think about it, the more I have to agree with Brock...it's maybe not a very probable scenario.

2. I would say the results of the peace negotiations are bitter for all parties involved: Chosen loses a considerable part of its territority, is left in relative political disorder and will have to deal with a economic depression caused by the devastated civilian economy. Furthermore it suffers from the massive manpower losses, a seriously damaged infrastructure and has to take care of millions of refugees from the northern provinces....meager years will follow.
Japan lost prestige, equipment, men and money and now faces a stronger China.
China achieved way too little for the price they paid, the northern provinces of Chosen have little valuable industry and underdeveloped or destroyed infrastructure. They neutralized Chosen for 8 or maybe 10 years but failed to exterminate it completely and thus Japan has still a foothold on the Asian continent.

3. Concerning a second Chosen war....the occupied territories will be constant trouble spots for the Chinese. The Korean Underground Army (KUA) will form in summer 1947 and secretly backed by the Chosen military goverment. They will harass the Chinese occupying force with occasional raids and acts of sabotage. In the early 50ies we will see one of several major insurgencies...one of them will be the casus belli for the second Sino-Chosen war.

4. Concerning naval warfare....after Chosen lost most of its cruisers all operations involving capital ships are suspended. Chosens navy will rely on submarines and MTBs exclusively.
I don't know exactly how and on which scale the OTL Japanese Navy took part in the Sino-Japanese war but I think the circumstances in wesworld are somewhat different to the historical situation. I) I would assume that The Chinese Navy is aware of the fact that their Navy is inferior to the IJN and thus they would try to avoid any naval battle. II) The Chinese airforce is rather large and equipped with planes which could deal with Japanese carrier based fighters. Any Japanese capital Ship operating in the China or Yellow Sea would be prey for Chinese land based aviation (the sinking of RCN Chosen proved how deadly the Chinese dive- and torpedobombers can be. In general I don't see how the Navy of any involved party could play a decisive role in this war.

5. Concerning the length of the conflict...I don't think it is optimistically long, quite the opposite. The terrain in northern Chosen is rough and mountainious which hinders any rapid offensive maneuver. The armies involved are mostly infantry armies, tanks are most of the time not useful as either the terrain is unsuitable or the infrastructure is insufficient/destroyed. You can't compare it in any way to the OTL german-soviet war (There are examples from WWI or the OTL Korean war which would be better suited for a comparsion.)
Furthermore I think the value of inexhaustible manpower resources should not be overestimated. Sure, China can replace casualties without suffering ill-effects in the long run but to carry out an ongoing offensive operation lasting several weeks or months you need much more than several million grunts with rifles. You need proper logistics, timetables, resource flows and a good coordination between formations and the branches. And I doubt Chinas military is skillful enough at those things to be able to end and win the war within a few months.

*Iberian hat on*

-Supplying Macao for three more years in these conditions is going to be pain. I expect the territory's economy is going to suffer as a result. On the other hand, I could foresee some potential cooperation with the UK in maintaining lines of communication to the area.

-Y'all best believe I'm going to have a second and third and fourth look at San Hainando's defences.

-Iberia will likely be delighted that somebody else is helping Chosen, and that China's being bled for a while. Though it probably won't say so publically.

*Bharati hat on*

-Bharat's agreed to sell a battleship, a light cruiser, a training carrier, and two seaplane carriers to China, yet the war will drag on another two and a half years. That's a long time to maintain these ships pierside. Might have to rethink the deals; alternately, China might need to make it worth Bharat's while to let the ships go during hostilities.

-Once Japan formally enters the war, China's lost its maritime trade routes. That precarious railway to Bharat is going to be of some strategic importannce to China, methinks. @Leverage

-Any notion of Asian solidarity is now truly shot to bits.

*Player hat on*

-The war sounds realistic-ish and reasonable but it can not continue to be told in weekly installments for another three years of in-game time. It would take four or five years of real-time to do this based on current posting rates. While I look forward to reading the in-character stuff, you guys need to adjust the presentation somewhat.

I think that there are a few points...

1. When Japan officially intervenes, bombers will already be close to dropping tons of bombs onto targets in Tianjin, Shanghai, Taipei, Dairen and Beijing. I doubt that Japan would wait for more than 2 years before commencing with a strategic bombing campaign against Chinese coastal cities.

2. Due to Jeju-do's proximity to Japan, IJN will actually get heavily involved and it will include Yamato and Musashi pounding the Chinese amphibious forces into surrendering. I find it extremely unlikely that the island would fall into Chinese hands, especially with the limited amphibious lift capability mentioned above. I think the chances of winning the jackpot are a lot greater than the Chinese managing to take over the island.

3. The Chinese trying to avoid battle with the IJN would suit the IJN extremely well as they plan to leave dive/torpedo bombers at home and only use fighters on the carriers. The massive amount of carrier fighters (as well as fighters operating out of Chosen) will make it extremly difficult for the Chinese to get to the battle core with whatever there is left of the Chinese bombers after all the massive bombing raids by the Japanese bombers...

4. Due to the projected length of the war, I would think that at one point, the Japanese would deploy jets as well as G10N bombers against the Chinese. G10N would extend the range of the Japanese bombing campaign to... pretty much everywhere in China.

5. Due to the projected length, I think something like this might appear over Beijing in the later stages...

In regards to the Chinese amphibious capacity I mentioned above,I calculated a few weeks ago the Chinese only have dedicated transport for about 2600 men plus a bit of supplies.

I speak as a player first:

I find the proposed timeline filled with items that beggar belief. Of course, the imponderables of war could bring about the outcome described, but I find it hard to accept.

January 1944 - After having made the rational decision to pull back to the Chosen frontier in probable defiance of the Great Leader's wishes the Chosen field commanders allow themselves to be sacked? I would think it more likely that at that point the Great Leader would be overthrown and an attempt made to reach an armistice.

February 1944 - Given the disparity of forces between China and Chosen, I would think that any surface combat between Chinese and Chosen naval forces would result in a quick Chinese victory; even allowing for the mix bag of vessels available, the numbers in favor of China are overwhelming and the Chinese do have experience in naval combat, whereas Chosen does not.

March 1944 - I cannot believe that it takes this long for Japan to officially intervene, and then do so in the tentative manner described. As has been commented upon, Japanese strategic bombing of Chinese targets would commence immediately, and, frankly, if the Imperial Japanese Navy fails to sweep the Chinese fleet back to its harbors the commander of the Combined Fleet ought to commit seppuku.

I could go on. There have been several comments on the high improbability of a successful Chinese landing upon Jeju-Do; even with the amphibious vessels under construction, their lift is hopelessly inadequate to the task given the likelihood of interception by Japanese naval forces.

If Japan in fact intervenes, the projected success of Chinese arms would be blunted but not stopped. Chosen has lost too many troops and too much equipment, and the proposed levels of Japanese troop strength is, in my opinion, far too low to make that much difference. To save Chosen's bacon, Japan will need to commit far more troops faster that the proposed timeline.

Lastly, I have reservations whether China or Japan would accept such a bloodletting as you propose. I suspect that they may want to suggest changes in your proposals.


Now to don national headwear:

The Philippines - not surprised that the scale of the war has grown that fast (Philippine news has talked about the hostilities in general, can now become more specific); pleased that China is racking up such heavy losses, unhappy at the eventual Chinese victory; surprised that Japan cannot support its neighbor effectively - huge loss of Japanese prestige. The passage of increased defense budgets is guaranteed so long as the war goes on.

Germany - distressed at the disruption of trade within the region; concerned at the destabilization resulting from the hostilities themselves and the peace terms; defintely consulting with alliance partners and other concerned parties on collective defense.

Yugoslavia - concerned at the humanitarian losses; concerned about possible diplomatic fallout. Not in a position to do much for either combattant.

Quoted from "Brockpaine"

In regards to the Chinese amphibious capacity I mentioned above,I calculated a few weeks ago the Chinese only have dedicated transport for about 2600 men plus a bit of supplies.

Here are the exact figures for China's amphibious forces:
- 2 transports of 4,800 tons normal (15 knots, 600 troops, 8x 9t landing craft and 1x heavy landing craft)
- 4 tank landing ships of 1,800 tons normal (16 knots, ~10-12 tanks and 150 troops)
- 5 tank landing craft of 300 tons (12 knots, 100t cargo or ten light vehicles)
- 5 fast troop transports of 1,400 tons (24 knots, four landing craft, 120 troops

So (2x600)+(4x150)+(5x120)= 2400 men plus 40-48 tanks plus 500t cargo.

A couple of questions.

Will all three players be at war economy standards until the end of 1946?

I'm intrigued by the Japanese strategic bombing campaign. I can't find any stats for how large the IJAAF and IJNAF bombing fleets are, nor how large China's fighter defences are.
The Japanese bombers are all large and complicated types, some are B-29 clones with six-engines etc. and the G10 is another massive bomber. While impressive I doubt production of all heavy types for both air arms has got much beyond 400-500 max. That's not a massive war-winning force given the training needs, reserves etc. The G10 has range but if there are only small numbers its a penny-packet which faces long flights across enemy territory. I don't know if China has radar defences, but its highly possible. The Chinese fighters are mainly mid-1930s types and probably not cutting edge any more but with numbers Japanese raids could be costly. On the other hand, wooden buildings and incendiaries don't mix well and some serious damage could be caused. China might well be strained with operations over Chosen and at home.

Also, (I've asked this before) does Shanghai have an International Quarter like OTL? If so and Japan bombs US and European-owned investments that risks at the very least claims for compensation, at worst embargoes or more...
Hong Kong and Macau are un-closable ports and links into China. Iberia and Britain have every right to be worried about attempts to blockade or bomb these areas. In terms of self-interest, Britain possibly wouldn't be too bothered if Japan bombs and destroys China's military production facilities.

If Japan does conjure up an A-Bomb, expect Britain to test the very next day and expect Britain to eventually base such weapons in the Far East. Just sayin' now so there is no misunderstandings.

Quoted from "Hood"

If Japan does conjure up an A-Bomb, expect Britain to test the very next day and expect Britain to eventually base such weapons in the Far East. Just sayin' now so there is no misunderstandings.

This is a topic we really need to discuss as a forum before it happens. I think there's quite a strong body of players who want to ensure that nuclear weapons do not show up within the scope of this game, or at the very least is subject to some sort of control. How exactly we shall deal with this is yet to be resolved, but I and the other moderators are discussing it.

I would be fine if A-bombs are developed in a realistic way by nations who have areason to do so and the necessary resources and the knowhow in physics.
But I think Japan developing the A-bomb within 2 or 3 years would certainly not be realistic. On the other hand I don't think it's realistic if europeans or americans would come up with it in the next ten years because they are not in a situation which would justify the immense expenses to delevop and build the A-bomb.

Quoted

The Japanese bombers are all large and complicated types

Depends which ones you refer to as 'large and complicated' but I think you're looking too much at the two +40000 kg designs. That it is a 'strategic bombing campaign' does not mean that I exclusively need large, long-range bombers. It is not like I am Cold War US and I need bombers to bomb Cold War Russia. There are numerous smaller bomber types around and while they may not have the range of the big ones, some still are able to get to China and with a Chosen fuel stop, even some of the small ones could get there. Sure the small ones don't pack as big as a punch as the big ones, but there would be quite a few of them around because they aren't large or complicated.

Quoted

The G10 has range but if there are only small numbers its a penny-packet which faces long flights across enemy territory. I don't know if China has radar defences, but its highly possible.

The problem is that China has no interceptors that can get to the G10Ns and it has no AA guns that can shoot them down.

And you do not really need that much of them. For example, assuming two attacks per day from the start of the Sino-Chosen war until October 22 1946 (reasonable date to assume suspension of bombing), you would only need 27 operational G10N bombers per day during that period to drop the same amount of bombs (weight-wise) as the RAF did during WW2.

Quoted

Also, (I've asked this before) does Shanghai have an International Quarter like OTL? If so and Japan bombs US and European-owned investments that risks at the very least claims for compensation, at worst embargoes or more...

Just because there are rumors does not mean that Japan will actually flatten Shanghai. It is more likely that the Forbidden City will be flattened. Not to get Emperor Pu Yi killed (and if he was smart enough, he would have moved to Tibet when the war started to become a monk) but to give Chinese morale a blow.

Quoted

In terms of self-interest, Britain possibly wouldn't be too bothered if Japan bombs and destroys China's military production facilities.

I would say that the British (and others) would be quite happy if China's military production facilities were to take a spanking...

Quoted

If Japan does conjure up an A-Bomb, expect Britain to test the very next day and expect Britain to eventually base such weapons in the Far East.

Well, I had a few things hinting about it in the news, so it is not as if I would be conjuring it out of thin air if I actually were to do it. I think that material availability to Japan might be a problem (though not an impossibility) so unlike the British test, an A-bomb dropped on China would be Japan's test.

... but because it is a test, it might just end up being a dud.

(actually I am more interested in it to power the fleet, not as a weapon)

Quoted

The problem is that China has no interceptors that can get to the G10Ns and it has no AA guns that can shoot them down.

Yet...

With the war lasting so long, there will be interesting new Mexican stuff going to the front. Especially since...

Quoted

summer 1945:

-Chosen long range submarines operate in the pacific against Mexican shipping

The timeline while doing away with the element of suspense, I think is a great idea, lets everyone else deal with the war without slowing the sim down.

Quoted

With the war lasting so long, there will be interesting new Mexican stuff going to the front. Especially since...

You won't get the you-know-what until after the conflict.