WesWorld

Yie! Three infantry corps about to be enveloped, the front cracked open... it's a bad week for Chosen.

France predicted it was merely a matter of time before China did this...

Quoted from "Brockpaine"

Yie! Three infantry corps about to be enveloped, the front cracked open... it's a bad week for Chosen.

France predicted it was merely a matter of time before China did this...

Golf clap for the well-played Chinese counterattack.

I agree, week 12 was not the best week for Chosen but after the Chinese axis of advance have been identified, countermeasure can be taken. I think Lieutenant General Choi Dae-Du and his glorious 1st Motorized Corps will teach the Chinese and the world a lesson about armored warfare Chosen-style.
This Chinese counterattack is just one last defiant struggle of an already dying Chinese nation.

So, between 1944 and 1962 there will be at least a *Second* Sino-Chosen War? Somebody failed to frame the peace agreement properly.

Well, you don't know how things will end up. Could just be a cease fire between the two nations and later during the 50s they go at it again.

Quoted from "Rooijen10"

Well, you don't know how things will end up. Could just be a cease fire between the two nations and later during the 50s they go at it again.

That is precisely my point.

Pleased to see the story is back and hasn't died. That would be unfortunate.

Story lives, just went into hibernation for a month.

Well, since Lieutenant General Choi Dae-Du lived to write his book, it is obvious that his request did not meet with the response that one would have expected, given the Great Leader's normal modus operandi. Perhaps this signals a better appreciation of the situation by the Chosen leadership.

While I leave, the detailed accounting to the Deuxieme Bureau, I find the last several weeks' worth of casualty and loss reports interesting. If I have totaled them properly, Chosen has lost nearly three hundred tanks and six hundred pieces of artillery in the course of the last four weeks. While there are no figures for domestic production or inventory at start, the announced deliveries of war materials from abroad are barely enough to make good losses in the tank category and in the artillery category, losses are running far ahead of imports. This does suggest to me that something has to give soon.

I'll have to tally the current figures once I get home - I don't keep my war sheet on me at all times - but I agree with Bruce. At the current rate of losses, matched with the estimated size of the Chosenian Army, the problems are only going to accelerate. The casualty rates, and the systematic annihilation of trained combat units, might perhaps be made good quantity-wise by reserves and conscription, but the quality of those new units, both in training and supporting arms, is going to be lacking. And untrained troops will suffer higher casualties, thus accelerating the problem.

Without figures for China I can't speculate on what issues they're having, but their manpower pool is so much larger that their problems will not be so acute, even if the ratio is five to one in Chosen's favor. (I will express a hunch that, given the respective qualities of both sides, the loss ratios are probably about equal.)

Worryingly for Chosen, I think, is that the amount of bloodshed on China's part is going to result in a party in Beijing that will desire to "get something" out of the war. There's no way China can save face (the primary goal of an Asian government) if they negotiate now and come off with a Draw against Chosen. And they'd be fools to negotiate at this point in time.

China lost some face as a result of the negotiated end to the South China Sea War. In those negotiations, however, they were under increasing pressure from the Westerners to make peace with the Philippines. Because of the Philippines' openness towards the West, the West was in turn willing and able to support them against China (and several powers were preparing to do so). This pressure caused China to accept a result at the negotiating table that, at best, was a Draw. I'd imagine there was a considerable number of Chinese military leaders who look at what they achieved in the war via arms and what they received at the end of the war, and feel the disconnect.

If the Chinese government again accepted a "draw" against Chosen despite a favorable military situation, then the Chinese military is going to feel doubly-betrayed. Two wars in close succession, and with no ability to save face in either? This sets up an extremely worrisome situation for the Chinese government in the future, with the possibility of a coup increasing substantially.

In other words, I don't think a mere cease-fire will solve this war now. China's going have to have a pound of flesh before it ends.

What options does Chosen have? At this moment, the recourse to arms has failed - probably not clear to deluded Chosen leadership, yet, but clear to everyone else. Chosen can continue to push for a Chinese defeat, but I'd guesstimate that Chosen probably needs about... eight to ten weeks' lull to recover their losses and reorganize shattered units. The scale of a Chinese defeat necessary to give them that breathing space is probably out of Chosen's reach at the moment.

Alternately, Chosen needs to call a friend. If Japan wants to maintain an independent state of Korea, then they need to make their presence felt now, and they need to do so in such a way that sets China back on their heels. (I don't believe mere diplomacy or threats will be sufficient at this point.) The other three powers who can help Chosen at this point are Russia (massive army and land border, ability to intervene decisively in the battle-space), Britain (great economic strength, but only a few shallow borders to intervene), and France (same issues as Britain). Unfortunately, all three nations have been alienated to some extent by Chosen, and really have little cause to jump into things.

I believe your analysis is spot on Brock; unless the current Chinese offensive suffers an unexpected reverse the Chosen forces will soon be thrown back over the Yalu. Japan has not shown too much overt support for either side, but I agree with you, Japan will not allow China to swallow Chosen - and that should be China's objective.

Granted, we know that between 1943 and 1962 that at least one more conflict ensues between China and Chosen; therefore something has to happen to prevent Chinese annexation of the entire peninsula (unless the second conflict is a war of liberation). I look forward to seeing how this is worked out.

Thanks Brock for the the detailed review of the current situation. I think you are indeed right in most aspects. I will however try to clarify some things a bit or at least give my own perspective on the situation.



1.) I know the losses were exceptionally high during the last weeks. They were meant to resemble the shock and chaos the initial stages of a massive counteroffensive can cause to a suprised defender. However, I would assume that the Chinese offensive is losing some of it's momentun pretty soon. In fact the hilly and mountainious terrain we are fighting in now, is an advantage to the defender and will be helpful for ambushes and to slow down the Chinese advance.
Concerning the Chinese casualties I have no figures, I would assume they are between 1.5x and 2.5x higher than those of Chosen (manpower wise).

2.) I agree with you that the losses sustained at this moment are crippling to some extend. I have not worked out domestic production figures in detail but I would assume the domestic tank production is somewhere between 100 and 130 tanks of all types per month. So, yes, with the destruction of the 1st MC Chosen did not only lose most of its tanks/armored vehicles and its only mobile formation, but also the ability to conduct maneuver warfare on the operational level.

3.) To recover manpower losses and materiel losses to some degree, Chosens leadership will take measures, as at least some high ranking officials are aware that the situation is critical. Therefore the level of mobilization will be increased and the materiel production will be streamlined. I will outline these measures IC very soon.

4.) I don't agree on the assumption that the quality of the Chosen Army will degrade quickly due to the fact that fallen "veteran" soldiers have to be replaced by recruits. In fact I would assume that the skill of the Army on the tactical and operational level will increase significantly because experience is better than any training could be. Chosens Army was not a professional army, the level of training was low even in peacetime.
Yes, I lost a few thousand soldiers and officers with dubious Chosen-quality pre-war training, and I will lose some more, but at the end of the year I will have gained battle proven NCO's and officers which know the weakspots of the Chinese forces.
There will be some changes to the organizational structure of the arm. Moreover Army doctrine will eventuelly abandon the at the present still common order-type tactics in favor to mission-type tactics.

5.) Chosens supreme command will take appropriate measures to ensure that no Chinese soldier will ever cross the Chosen-Chinese border. A new, impregnable defence line will be set up at the axis Zhuanghe-Xiuyan-Fengcheng-Huanren-Tonghua.

I'll have to respond to Daidalos' comment above later, but for now I wanted to give the war-to-date sums:

Quoted

KIA: 81,916
WIA: 119,959
MIA: 14,312
POW: 7,020
tanks: 337
light tanks: 329
armored vehicles: 1,035
unarmored vehicles: 2,199
art. guns: 794
fighter planes: 284
bomber planes: 261
recce planes: 61

The belief that the injection of under-trained or untrained recruits into a formation that has gained "combat experience" and suffered heavy casualties in the process is chimerical. Such a process requires time - time for the lessons of combat to be absorbed, time for officers and non-commissioned officers to be replaced, time to impart the lessons to the replacements made available. "Experienced" NCOs might be able to replace platoon commanders, but the losses in company and field officers will be much harder to replace. That too takes time; and it is unlikely that the Chinese will allow Chosen the time. It cannot be done in combat without loss of efficiency.

The advancing Chinese forces may find themselves hampered by logistics concerns, but I do not see that as stopping them. As they uncover evidence of the atrocities perpetrated by the Chosen Army - and they will - they will be motivated by revenge.

In the short run, domestic arms production cannot be sufficiently streamlined to make good the combat losses; it is questionable whether the Chinese will allow Chosen sufficient time to carry out the necessary changes.

Establishing a defensive line along the Yalu will avail Chosen little when the entire Yellow Sea is controlled by the Chinese Navy; they have already demonstrated the use of their amphibious forces. It stands to reason that they will do so again.

Brock has summarized the combat losses. There are more than 80,000 Chosen dead, more than 100,000 Chosen wounded - even if half of the wounded have been able to return to the front, that raises the effective losses by 50,000. Nearly 700 tanks, nearly 800 pieces of artillery. The Great Leader needs to see the light.

I think the most critical factor, is the complete air superiority of the Chinese. Then can and will wreck havoc, especially against a disorganized enemy in full retreat.

By all accounts is appears that China has control over the battle space at the present moment. This is of great importance; whether the Chinese Air Force can maintain the pressure over time and space is an open question. Foreign intervention in the form of air units is the easiest way for such intervention to be carried out, and it would have the greatest impact. It will be interesting to see if this plays out.

Quoted from "Daidalos"

1.) I know the losses were exceptionally high during the last weeks. They were meant to resemble the shock and chaos the initial stages of a massive counteroffensive can cause to a suprised defender. However, I would assume that the Chinese offensive is losing some of it's momentun pretty soon. In fact the hilly and mountainious terrain we are fighting in now, is an advantage to the defender and will be helpful for ambushes and to slow down the Chinese advance.
Concerning the Chinese casualties I have no figures, I would assume they are between 1.5x and 2.5x higher than those of Chosen (manpower wise).

That's true - China is going to face the mountain country pretty soon, and that will reduce both their advantage in armour and airpower. Moreover, as it's now the end of October, the malicious Korean winter is going to start to play its part in eliminating aircover.

I can probably see that China's casualties are 1.5x-2x times higher than Chosen's; at first they were sucker-punched (with surprise taking it's toll) and major units on the border overwhelmed and lost. And now they're on the offensive again, taking casualties at a higher rate. I do think that points to an inability by China's field commanders to put their numerically-superior forces into play in a way that eliminates the defenders' advantages.

Though I don't think it's ever been specifically stated, I suppose I have a presumption that the average divisions fielded by Chosen and China are probably very closely equivalent in skill and general levels of equipment - although I'd probably give a hair of edge to China, as their troops have seen a number of combats within the last twenty years.

Quoted from "Daidalos"

2.) I agree with you that the losses sustained at this moment are crippling to some extend. I have not worked out domestic production figures in detail but I would assume the domestic tank production is somewhere between 100 and 130 tanks of all types per month.

Errrm, if you say so. I feel that is an optimistic figure - it's just slightly fewer tanks than Germany built during 1940, and Germany is a pretty hefty industrial power with four times the population. I'd have suspected something more along the lines of twenty to twenty-five tanks per month of all types, myself, rising slowly - perhaps as high as your suggested figure - over the course of two to three years, presuming the factories aren't being bombed into rubble. (For disclosure, in mid 1942, France was in the middle of a massive replacement of the equipment of their armoured forces, and manufactured between 160-180 tanks per month, essentially about the same wartime rate they managed during the course of early 1940. In more recent years, it's been more like sixty tanks a month, including those manufactured for export.) But if that's what you say, okay then.

Quoted from "Desertfox"

I think the most critical factor, is the complete air superiority of the Chinese. Then can and will wreck havoc, especially against a disorganized enemy in full retreat.

Yes, absolutely. It would appear Chosen has continued to make some efforts to contest the airspace (witness the aircraft losses), but China's dominance in the air gives them a pretty hefty tool, should they be able to use it. Experience in Wesworld does strongly indicate that when one side has air dominance, the results on the ground are absolutely decisive.

Quoted from "BruceDuncan"

The belief that the injection of under-trained or untrained recruits into a formation that has gained "combat experience" and suffered heavy casualties in the process is chimerical. Such a process requires time - time for the lessons of combat to be absorbed, time for officers and non-commissioned officers to be replaced, time to impart the lessons to the replacements made available. "Experienced" NCOs might be able to replace platoon commanders, but the losses in company and field officers will be much harder to replace. That too takes time; and it is unlikely that the Chinese will allow Chosen the time. It cannot be done in combat without loss of efficiency.

I think I agree with Bruce on this one. Yes, Chosen's survivors will be battle-trained and ready, but the current formations largely seem to be in a state of exhaustion. I've read about the US Army's experience in bringing together new recruits and combat veterans. It struck me that the veterans, particularly those of vicious actions, are very remote to the new recruits: there is a feeling that "I don't want to form friendships with these noobs - they're just going to die horribly like all my previous friends who didn't survive." If I understand it correctly, the US Army tended to disband units which were heavily-hit, simply because the veterans couldn't cope with integrating new recruits very well. (Conversely, the Germans, due to Hitler's maniac orders, never disbanded units even when they were bled to a third or more of their original strength.)

During my occasional articles going back to detail incidents during the Andean War, the Chilean Army did in fact put new soldiers into battle-hardened units to replace casualties. The differences in that case are perhaps rather striking. When a Chilean battalion suffered casualties or stayed "on the front" for a week or two, it was pulled back, brought back up to strength, and rested over the course of weeks (often engaging in field exercises to help integrate the new troops). Hard-hit units were pulled back to guard supply lines and rear-echelon areas, often for months at a time, as they recovered their strength and integrated new soldiers. While this resulted in Chilean Army units being spread thinly through the battlespace, and open to defeat-in-detail, air superiority, logistics, terrain, and a variety of other factors all played into the stratagem's success.

Okay, I did some research and I found out the production numbers in my head which I used as a reference were from late 1943... 120 is indeed way to optimistic for Chosen. So lets assume 30-40 of all types for now.

Brock, while I acknowledge that the phenomena of separation between veterans and replacements you describe did occur, I cannot recall that many examples of the US Army disbanding units that took a lot of casualties; certainly those few that might have been were exceptional. As for German units, at least until 1944 or so, a unit that took heavy casualties would be pulled out of the line and sent elsewhere for rebuilding; given sufficient time, replacements could be fitted into an existing unit.

It is also worth remembering that the German replacement system differed from the American in that German replacements came forward from the home depots of their constituent regiments, whereas American replacements came from general replacement depots - the infamous "RepoDepot". This is how units mauled in the allied advance through France could be rapidly rebuilt for the Battle of the Bulge - about the last time the system was able to function.