Estimate of US intentions for Naval Visit to Russian Far East and Siberia
Yevgenii Borisovich Borodin, Political Secretary, Russian Federation Embassy, Washington D.C.
Visit of US Fleet to Vladivostok is prompted by three main US interests:
1) Demonstration of global reach of US naval forces, as motivated global voyage of President Roosevelt's "Great White Fleet"
Since Spanish-American War, US naval efforts have been mostly directed against remaining Iberian position in Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean. Thus, US naval developments have not emphasized capabilities conducive to trans-Pacific naval reach. This certainly has not been due to any lack of US economic capacity. United States is perhaps greatest economic and industrial power on Earth, rivaled only by British Empire, and now that US government have decided to acquire trans-Pacific naval reach, it cannot be doubted that US Navy will acquire exactly that, in decade if not sooner.
2) Demonstration of US Government's willingness to develop US-Russian relations as part of more active foreign policy.
US-Russian relations have been stable for years, if not particularly close. Points of friction are largely absent. Wall Street looked askance at Russian Federation's repudiation of American war loans to previous Imperial Russian government, but this did not affect diplomatic relations much. Americans seemed to have judged that they had few methods of pressuring new Russian Federation government and concluded that dim prospect of gaining compensation for repudiated loans did not warrant major diplomatic effort to do so.
One point of US-Russian... cooperation is far too strong a word, but perhaps... shared disquiet, has been development of SATSUMA alliance, but phase of active SATSUMA demands on Extra-Asian possessors of "colonial" possessions in Asia seems to have receded, and we judge that United States government are not strongly motivated by this factor at present.
A new administration has come to power, and it definitely has decided that United States needs a foreign policy and military power comensurate with its vast economic, financial, and industrial power. The United States will grow in importance, and Russian Federation government must decide how to utilize the advantages for Russia, and minimize the disadvantages, that this more active US foreign policy and US military and naval expansion will produce.
3) Acquisition of new fields and prospects for US investment.
America reached limit of her territorial expansion decades ago, but such was vastness and natural wealth of that territory that it provided more than adequate prospects for US investment up until very recently. Though these opportunities are by no means exhausted even now, Wall Street is ever watchful for new prospects, and have cast their eyes upon Russia.
Addendum by Chief of Staff of Russian Federation Presidential Administration.
Respected Vice-Admiral Putiatin,
Since American delegation is primarily naval, you have been authorized to lead all discussions. If protocol demands, you are authorized to invite Presidential Plenipotentiary for Siberia and Far East Pavel Andreievich Orlov, as well as Far Eastern Military District commander General Igor Ivanovich Gnedin, to any social function or negotiations.
To assist you in your discussions with your American counterparts, Russian Foreign Ministry have sent you experts of US foreign policy, economy, and Armed Forces. Ministries of Finance, Heavy Industry, Oil, and Railroads have done likewise. They will advise you on general points of your discussions with senior members of American delegation, and are briefed to conduct negotiations in their fields with substantive experts on American side.
I include following information and instructions:
1) Overall, RF Government believe that this more active Us foreign policy in Pacific Ocean region holds significantly more advantages for Russian Federation than disadvantages. Therefore, you should seek to advance these discussions and show friendly and forthcoming attitude to your American counterparts, while protecting Russia's interests in following areas:
a) Russia's primary political, military, and economic relationships are with Atlantis, France, and Germany, and you are to protect all interests of our allies in all discussions. It is unlikely that your discussions with Americans will endanger Russia's relations with British Empire. Diplomatic and foreign intelligence reporting indicate that their relations are becoming increasingly close, with Stimson's mission to Great Britain progressing rapidly. As far as we have been able to determine, this mission is sharing "crown jewels" of their technological capabilities, though certain British research concerning "Industrial Welding" has been excluded. We expected that transforming FAR into Grand Alliance with Germany joining our alliance system would promote closer relations between Americans and British Empire. Though their public comment on formation of Grand Alliance was subdued, it is fulfillment of worst geopolitical nightmare for both, Eurasian dominance by a single power. Their counteraction so far does not damage our interests and probably will not, since our relations with both have been stable and non-threatening for a long time, if not particularly close.
b) Their will be no official admission of RF willingness to reverse repudiation of American war loans to Imperial Russian government. As a practical matter, RF government will consider small increments of additional interest on any new American credits which our American counterparts may apply to these repudiated loans if they so choose.
c) Russia's basic social system differs from that of United States. We are world's only major Socialist country, living among Capitalist powers. At present and for forseeable future, this fact does not threaten Russia. Nearly all Great Powers seem to have gotten more than their fill of war in Great War, either directly, or by observation of its manifest horrors and dire consequences. Nevertheless, Capitalists will seek to recover their positions in Russia by peaceful means and we will not permit it. They come to us in hopes of gaining money and control. Money we will give them, with both hands. They have valuable capabilities and expertise that will greatly help us develop, especially in Siberia and Far East, and we will compensate them handsomely. Control we will keep for ourselves. We will accept Americans gaining up to 25% ownership stakes in joint ventures, and we are willing to guarantee liquidity of initial investments and rates of return.
d) Of particular interest of RF government is American investment and technical assistance in constructing new rail line north of Baikal to Magadan. We have begun this line, extending from Taishet on Trans-Siberian Railroad to Bratsk on Angara River to support planned construction of Bratsk Hydroelectric and Aluminum Combine. We anticipate great expense and technical challenge in extending this line to Magadan, especially in excavating tunnels through several mountain ranges, crossing regions subject to freeze-thaw cycle of permafrost, and conducting research in metallurgical techniques for producing rails that can withstand stresses of construction and operation in extreme cold.
e) We wish to encourage American investment in Siberian oil industry, and American technical assistance in our oil industry in general. For presently producing regions such as Baku, Urals, Perm Basin, and Sakhalin, reveal all characteristics and seek technical assistance for presently producing areas, as well as in oil refining processes. For regions we have explored and have firm estimates of reserves, reveal all relevant data and seek investment and joint ventures for development and production. Seek to gain American technical assistance in methods of exploration and estimating reserves. Do not reveal data on regions presently being explored.
f) You are authorized to demonstrate latest models and full capabilities of Russian aircraft, artillery, combat vehicles, and naval vessels. Since Russian information management, radio-location, and radio communication capabilities are largely of Atlantean and French origin, any demonstration of these capabilities will be done at reduced power and efficiency in order to protect technical secrets of our allies.
Subject to these instructions, we entrust you and expert team assigned to you to conduct negotiations with your American counterparts.
OOC Note: This outlines the basic Russian interests and approach to relations with the US. The big game element is the railroad extension to Magadan, then extending to Vladivostok to complete a circuit. As a guess, in game turns it represents an investment of about 30 IP. This isn't a direct expenditure of IP, but reflects the naval budget cuts that the RF government will make to finance the project. Similarly, the Russian Army, Air Force, and Air Defense Force will also get budget cuts.
I'm sure you'll all agree that the RF Armed Forces are Plenty Big Enough. They are also modernizing at a rapid rate. Mid-1930s vintage equipment is being replaced and stored for wartime mobilization. I'll be cutting back production rates while maintaining capacity. R&D will continue, and new stuff will continue to be introduced regularly, but peacetime production runs will be reduced.
And in a decade (maybe, if I can lure in US financing and technical assistance) I'll have a nice new Siberian rail line!