WesWorld

The Manila Times, Sunday, 1 June 1947

The destroyers Mahadi and Monteverde formally joined the Northern Fleet today upon completion of their operational training.

The Mindanao Post, Wednesday, 4 June 1947

Thus far the month of June has seen great strides made in the refurbishment of the Philippine Navy. On Monday the destroyer Baelaran was completed at the Cavite shipyard while the next day the ingenious logistics support vessel Cruzado was launched and towed to Cavite’s fitting-out wharf to complete her construction. Our own Butuan shipyards have been no less busy. The destroyers Balintawak and Bonawon have been completed and have embarked on their trials; the minelayers Calintan and San Jose have been launched, with their completion expected before autumn. Vigilant by sea the nation must remain.

The Manila Times, Wednesday, 2 July 1947

Naval shipyards around the country were busy yesterday with keels being laid for many new warships required by the Philippine Navy to defend the nation. The most notable vessels to be begun are the destroyers Lamitan and Lucena at Butuan and the submarines Cygnus and Claravis at the Cavite Dockyard. Other vessels laid down included a number of auxiliary ships at San Fernando and Puerto Princesa.

The Mindanao Post, Sunday, 6 July 1947

Naval Operating Base Cavite, Saturday, 19 July 1947

The submarine Carricero slipped her moorings and with the assistance of a small yard tug made her way to the seaward channel. Unlike the big ships of the Philippine Navy submarines received no great fanfares when they departed on their missions; hers was to join the patrol off a Chinese port – to note movement and be the tripwire should the dragon suddenly decide to attack. Not that here commander and crew expected that today, but they were as ready as they could be. The Carricero was a new Tirador-class boat, fresh from training; now she had the opportunity to make her name.

The Bohol Chronicle, Wednesday, 23 July 1947

The submarine Ciquera was completed yesterday at the Butuan Naval Shipyard. She will now undergo trials before joining the fleet before winter.

Naval Operating Base Butuan, Monday, 28 July 1947

Kapitein-luitenant ter Zee Eugène Lacomblé stood quietly among the crowd of dignitaries gathered at the side of the great graving dock. Beneath them the water slowly rose, lapping the keels of the submarines Columbina and Chen, the latest boats constructed for the Philippine Navy. He had been to several such ceremonies in the last year, as ambitious construction plans delivered ship after ship to his hosts. Reports suggested that shipyards in China were equally busy; how probable, he wondered, was a renewal of hostilities between these two Asian nations? At this point, he wished not to bet on either option - the odds were too close.

Naval Air Station Cavite, Friday, 1 August 1947

Two Breguet-Nord Br.930 Pêcheur anti-submarine aircraft of the French Aeronavale arrived here today for a demonstration visit. Based aboard the French aircraft carrier L’Ocean, stationed in Indochina, the Breguet aircraft will be evaluated by the Philippine Naval Air Service as possible replacements for the service’s Consolidated Catalina patrol aircraft.

The Manila Times, Sunday, 3 August 1947

Minister of Agriculture Manuel Nieto, accompanied by senators Don Salvador Araneta and Don Pedro Roxas formally opened new laboratory facilities at the Pampanga Sugar Development Company’s research center at Angeles. The firm has led the nation in developing new strains of sugar cane with better yields and greater resistance to pests and disease; the new laboratories will build on this earlier work to assure that the nation’s greatest cash crop remains a strong pillar of the economy.

Manila, The Ministry of Defense, Wednesday, 6 August 1947

For Don Roberto Cain the latest rounds of intelligence reports set alarm bells ringing in his mind. Reconnaissance had confirmed the rumors that China was constructing naval fortifications in the Pescadores Islands including massive pens for submarines, much like the ones at Canton, Takao, and Tsingtao. Radio traffic analysis suggested that a new commander had taken charge of Chinese submarines based in Formosa, for the flow of messages indicated far more activity in the last six months than the previous norm. Agent reports indicated that construction of the “Golf” class long-range submarines – huge two-thousand tonners – was continuing, and there were intimations that smaller boats were also being massed produced.

While the Chinese submarine arm was probably a greater threat to Japan or to European interests in Indochina and the East Indies Cain felt legitimate cause for concern. While the Philippine Navy had sufficient destroyers to screen the fleet from submarine attack, antisubmarine assets for trade protection were thin. It was therefore most fortunate that the recent visit of a pair of Aeronavale Breguet-Nord Br.930 Pêcheurs to Cavite suggested the most effective counter to Chinese submarines attempting to operate in Philippine coastal waters. The naval aviators wanted some to supplement their Catalina flying boats – and here was the ammunition he needed to push that through the Council of Ministers.

But the Navy’s light surface forces were poorly equipped to counter submarines, either intended for other roles or too few in number to matter. Given the Chinese head-start and the murkiness of its building program, Cain had no hesitation to endorsing a request to the Bureau of Ships to begin design of an effective ASW escort vessel with modern sensors and weapons.

Just curious about the Filipino logic. What makes them think that the Chinese submarine arm is probably a greater threat to Japan than the Philippines? I would say the same thing about the European Nations the Filipinos are thinking of were it not for the great distance between them and their Asian territories. But ignoring that and looking purely at the European interests in Indochina and the East Indies, they have better ASW equipment around than the Philippines (otherwise the Philippines would not be looking at the Breguet-Nord Br.930) so to me (both IC and OOC) the Chinese submarine arm is actually a greater threat to the Philippines than to Japan or to European interests in Indochina and the East Indies. Now if you are going to include the news bits about Chinese planes flying close to Filipino airspace, that just increases the threat to the Philippines.

Quoted from "Rooijen10"

Just curious about the Filipino logic. What makes them think that the Chinese submarine arm is probably a greater threat to Japan than the Philippines? I would say the same thing about the European Nations the Filipinos are thinking of were it not for the great distance between them and their Asian territories. But ignoring that and looking purely at the European interests in Indochina and the East Indies, they have better ASW equipment around than the Philippines (otherwise the Philippines would not be looking at the Breguet-Nord Br.930) so to me (both IC and OOC) the Chinese submarine arm is actually a greater threat to the Philippines than to Japan or to European interests in Indochina and the East Indies. Now if you are going to include the news bits about Chinese planes flying close to Filipino airspace, that just increases the threat to the Philippines.

Two-thousand-ton submarines aren't very useful in the coastal waters of the Philippine archipelago. They are very useful if you want to cut Japan's sea lines of communication with anyplace outside of Chosen. That is my logic. Your mileage may vary.

I did not know that Japan had any sea lines of communication with anyplace outside of Chosen... did I miss anything?

Quoted from "Rooijen10"

I did not know that Japan had any sea lines of communication with anyplace outside of Chosen... did I miss anything?

Unless you can change the laws of physics, yes. Japan is not blessed with the resources for autarky.

Isn't that about trade routes so what does it have to do with communications? I am well aware of Japan requiring foreign goods to function but they are not stupid to get those goods from many thousands of miles away when it is available a lot closer to Japan. As an example, sure Mexico made an offer for oil that was a lot cheaper than the DEI oil, but the Japan-DEI trade route is much shorter and easier to protect which Japan deems more important than a much harder to protect trade route between Japan and Mecico for very cheap oil. I would think that the extra cost of the DEI oil would be less than the extra costs needed to secure and protect a trade route between Japan and Mexico.

Also with what you say, you make it pretty much clear that Japan must be dependent on foreign trade and the Philippines does not have to be which to me seems ridiculous as the Philippines has the same problems with their trade routes as Japan would have with its trade routes. Sure Japan isn't self-sufficient, but the Philippines aren't self-sufficient either.

I don't see anything in Bruce's comments to suggest that the Philippines does not rely on outside trade. That said the Philippines is not as industrialised as Japan so Japan's needs are much greater. I also find it highly suspect that Japan would not diversify its trade sources in times of peace, there is only so much of the pie in the DEI and elsewhere with reguards to trade. Speaking of the DEI, the trade routes to Japan seem far more tenuous than those that are between the Philippines and the DEI but both would be tasty targets for Chinese subs. Its also worth noting that another indicator of who China is factoring in on with reguard's to defence is the sub pen construction (some of these pens are deep in Chinese airspace). You would have to mount quite a large force of Philippine B-25's to have any hope of damaging the pens enough to disrupt operations, B-24's would have a better chance but I don't think 108 aircraft would give much longevity to a prolonged campaign vs sub pens. Japanese Ki-70 bombers on the other hand carry 4 times the bomb payload of the B-25 and twice that of the B-24 Liberator and while we have no numbers of Japanese aircraft to go by, even with conservative estimates they likely have 3 times the number of bombers that the Philippine's has as well as a broader list of roles.

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I don't see anything in Bruce's comments to suggest that the Philippines does not rely on outside trade.

To me saying "Two-thousand-ton submarines aren't very useful in the coastal waters of the Philippine archipelago" while making no mention of the many trade routes the Philippines has with other nations and the very serious threat that those submarines pose to those routes does that.

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That said the Philippines is not as industrialised as Japan so Japan's needs are much greater.

Also has more ASW assets to protect those needs and they would try to get those needs from close by so there is less route length to protect.

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I also find it highly suspect that Japan would not diversify its trade sources in times of peace, there is only so much of the pie in the DEI and elsewhere with reguards to trade.

I do not see why that is necessary to do that in times of peace. Sure in times of war that is certainly going to be a big issue, but there is no fun in that if there is no challenge that needs to be overcome.

The oil is a good indication to that. While Japan has ideas about the region, it still needs to be careful to avoid a situation where the Dutch stop supplying oil.

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Speaking of the DEI, the trade routes to Japan seem far more tenuous than those that are between the Philippines and the DEI but both would be tasty targets for Chinese subs.

The route probably runs close to or through the Philippines and I doubt they won't like it when Chinese subs are lurking in the area, causing a potential threat to shipping destined to the Philippines, and do nothing about it. So to Japan it will be more tenuous but not far more tenuous as you are suggesting.

Quoted

Its also worth noting that another indicator of who China is factoring in on with reguard's to defence is the sub pen construction (some of these pens are deep in Chinese airspace).

Well, I may have let it slip somewhere (not on the open boards though for all to see) that should China attack the Philippines, there is a good chance that Japan would help the Philippines. So with the possible threat of Japan jumping in to help the Philippines against Chinese aggression, building those pens is a smart thing to do from a Chinese POV because they can expect the big bombers to be back over China.

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You would have to mount quite a large force of Philippine B-25's to have any hope of damaging the pens enough to disrupt operations, B-24's would have a better chance but I don't think 108 aircraft would give much longevity to a prolonged campaign vs sub pens.

The thing is that the pens are useless to submarines at sea. To the Philippines, having a bunch of Breguet-Nord Br.930 and some of those new ASW ships is going to be much more effective against Chinese submarines than sending out 108 bombers in the hope to damage those pens a bit even if it requires more effort to find those submarines. I think converting those 108 bombers to perform ASW duties is going to be more useful than bombing pens.

Quoted

Japanese Ki-70 bombers on the other hand carry 4 times the bomb payload of the B-25 and twice that of the B-24 Liberator and while we have no numbers of Japanese aircraft to go by, even with conservative estimates they likely have 3 times the number of bombers that the Philippine's has as well as a broader list of roles.

To be honest, I'm no good with numbers, so that is why you have no numbers. But even with 10 times the number, how effective are the normal bombs going to be against the pens? You'd need something big like the bomb in the middle picture of the Ki-70-III group in the Japanese ency or even bigger like the bomb in the second picture of the Ki-96 post to have a decent effect on the pens I would think. Maybe something like a single 20 ton bomb aboard G10N bombers would be useful as well to make the pens part of history.

Quoted

To me saying "Two-thousand-ton submarines aren't very useful in the coastal waters of the Philippine archipelago" while making no mention of the many trade routes the Philippines has with other nations and the very serious threat that those submarines pose to those routes does that.

All supposition on your part....

Quoted

Also has more ASW assets to protect those needs and they would try to get those needs from close by so there is less route length to protect. I do not see why that is necessary to do that in times of peace. Sure in times of war that is certainly going to be a big issue, but there is no fun in that if there is no challenge that needs to be overcome.

So your saying Japan is not trying to increase trade and thereby improve their economy or is Japan on a permanent war footing with regards to trade? I'm not saying you don't have a plan during war but that plan certainly isn't feasible during peace time economic growth.

Quoted

The oil is a good indication to that. While Japan has ideas about the region, it still needs to be careful to avoid a situation where the Dutch stop supplying oil.

Its still a long trade route and its a large portion of water to cover for all those escorts, which would make good targets for aircraft.

Quoted

The route probably runs close to or through the Philippines and I doubt they won't like it when Chinese subs are lurking in the area, causing a potential threat to shipping destined to the Philippines, and do nothing about it. So to Japan it will be more tenuous but not far more tenuous as you are suggesting.

Well the degree of difference is subject to debate....

Quoted

Well, I may have let it slip somewhere (not on the open boards though for all to see) that should China attack the Philippines, there is a good chance that Japan would help the Philippines. So with the possible threat of Japan jumping in to help the Philippines against Chinese aggression, building those pens is a smart thing to do from a Chinese POV because they can expect the big bombers to be back over China. The thing is that the pens are useless to submarines at sea. To the Philippines, having a bunch of Breguet-Nord Br.930 and some of those new ASW ships is going to be much more effective against Chinese submarines than sending out 108 bombers in the hope to damage those pens a bit even if it requires more effort to find those submarines. I think converting those 108 bombers to perform ASW duties is going to be more useful than bombing pens.

You kinda prove my point with reguards to the sub pens, the Philippines doesn't have any real capability to specifically hit Chinese subs in their ports, with or without pens, so who would they be built to protect subs from? The British or Iberians? with or without OOC info on your "slip" I'd have to deduce that Japan is the likely nation they are built to defend against.

Quoted

To be honest, I'm no good with numbers, so that is why you have no numbers. But even with 10 times the number, how effective are the normal bombs going to be against the pens? You'd need something big like the bomb in the middle picture of the Ki-70-III group in the Japanese ency or even bigger like the bomb in the second picture of the Ki-96 post to have a decent effect on the pens I would think. Maybe something like a single 20 ton bomb aboard G10N bombers would be useful as well to make the pens part of history.

Carpet bombing with enough frequency can start to have an effect on pens and I can think of only one nation in the region that could accomplish that.

It's no secret the RAF has been building up a strategic bombing force in Malaya since the early 40s (currently 4 squadrons of BCAC (Vickers) Windsor bombers, roughly 48-60 aircraft), so to some extent there is a Western threat too.

Barnes Wallis had the crazy idea in his head for an earthquake bomb years ago but there is no Grand Slam in the RAF inventory but I've hinted in the past that the 12,000lb Tallboy does exist in limited numbers and with the new BCAC (Vickers) Westminster able to carry 56,000lb of bombs and a max range of 2,580 miles (not with full bombload) its easy to see the RAF by 1950 will have ample ability to reach those pens and do some damage, and it could very easily carry a Grand Slam over long ranges. With a maximum speed of 382mph at 25,000ft and a good cruising ceiling its not going to be easy to knock-down and has a good defensive armament too. This is the "Bloody Paralyser" of the era for the RAF and in effect China has given life to the sort of targets this bomber exists and reassures the Air Staff they were not crazy in specifying such a bomber. It seems almost certain some of these will head East as the begin to enter service from next year.

For comparison the current Winsdor in theatre can carry 12,000lbs max bombload but only 8,000lb over a range of 2,890 miles (plus some have in-flight refuelling capability to extend range for heavily laden aircraft). Max speed is 379mph at 23,000ft.

For those who need other larger hints as to whether the Grand Slam exists in embryonic or even prototype form, the new jet bomber specification B.35/46 calls for a maximum bombload of 21,000lb (could be 21x 1000lb or 1x 21,000lb).

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All supposition on your part....

You just don't read it the way I do and to me it says what it says.

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So your saying Japan is not trying to increase trade and thereby improve their economy

To be honest, right now, all I can think of is stuff that comes into Japan that costs money and does nothing to improve Japan's economy...

On the other hand, you make it sound like all goods being imported to/exported from Japan must be transported by Japanese flagged ships which seems unlikely to me.

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or is Japan on a permanent war footing with regards to trade?

No idea what the hell that is supposed to mean.

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Its still a long trade route and its a large portion of water to cover for all those escorts, which would make good targets for aircraft.

We are talking about about Chinese submarines and the potential threat they are to the trade routes so why the hell bring in aircraft that target escorts? But if we must look at them, I doubt the Chinese are stupid enough to fly through Filipino airspace or capable of doing that unchallenged or without serious losses to get to the southern part of the route to the DEI (unless they ally themselves with the Philippines which seems more unlikely now than ever). At the same time the Northern part of that route is close enough Japan to be defended by Japanese aircraft.

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You kinda prove my point with reguards to the sub pens

Maybe that is because I kinda agree with that point of yours?

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Carpet bombing with enough frequency can start to have an effect on pens and I can think of only one nation in the region that could accomplish that.

Yes, in Soviet Russia carpet bomber flies you...

Actually, I only agree with that if it is about doing it right now. I am pretty sure that with some time to shift forces, Russia, Britain and France are more than capable of doing that as well.

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It's no secret the RAF has been building up a strategic bombing force in Malaya since the early 40s (currently 4 squadrons of BCAC (Vickers) Windsor bombers, roughly 48-60 aircraft), so to some extent there is a Western threat too.

I would not be surprised if that force were to be increased in size with those recent Chinese developments.

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For those who need other larger hints as to whether the Grand Slam exists in embryonic or even prototype form, the new jet bomber specification B.35/46 calls for a maximum bombload of 21,000lb (could be 21x 1000lb or 1x 21,000lb).

Why not go a step further and increase the load so it could carry some British version of the OTL US's T-12?