WesWorld

Quoted from "Valles"

Quoted from "thesmilingassassin"

Keep in mind both Britain and the U.S. both had nuclear programs, Britains more advanced that the Americans at first, then when war broke out and the British hesitated to share their research and were very quickly outpaced by the U.S. program, albeit due to their scientists working on "tube alloy's" were deverted to the American program. Essentially the British program was subsumed by the American one. Britain was a fairly wealthy country and it took them a decade with some knowledge gained via the Manhattan project (which took 3 years and a collective allied participation). Without a world war and allied cooperation I think 10 years is quite optimistic and that's before we take in wesworld economics into account. Britain has 50 factory's, Nordmark 21(?), factories being a rough gauge on a nations economic strength.

Aha, this, I can address in detail.

Going to wiki, we find a highly-rounded figure of $100 million for each Iowa-class Battleship. Comparing their given tonnage to our rules, we find that that puts 1 IP at about 22 million dollars or equivalent, plus-minus whatever the difference between an Iowa's Light and Standard tonnage is - it falls under the level of significant figures that interest me. Dividing the Manhattan Project's $2 billion pricetag by 22 million gives us...

*pause*

*frowns at his calculator* Wait, what? That's not at all what I got last time I did this. I got 20 IP then... Mrrgh.

*goes to edit the corrected total number into old reports*

Anyway, yeah, I'd calculated seven and a half years to reach the 'initial test' stage, or 1954 or so, based on my 50% overage of my initial figures. Recalculated, we're looking at something more like 1970.

Oops! :D

Quoted from "BruceDuncan"

Oops!

Yeah, seriously. I mean, I didn't put disclaimers of mathematical incompetence on my sim reports for a while for nothing, but usually I come closer than that. The only thing I can think of is that I'd managed to find some reference to the costs of the Swedish nuclear weapons program and they were a lot lower, but if so, I can't find them again right now.

*shrug*

Well, it serves my Doylist purpose of using up all the industrial production Nordmark can't use even better now, so whatever.

Theres a reason I put *subject to editing* on my quarterly reports (when I post them) ;-)

Quoted from "Valles"

Quoted from "BruceDuncan"

Oops! :D

Yeah, seriously. I mean, I didn't put disclaimers of mathematical incompetence on my sim reports for a while for nothing, but usually I come closer than that. The only thing I can think of is that I'd managed to find some reference to the costs of the Swedish nuclear weapons program and they were a lot lower, but if so, I can't find them again right now.

*shrug*

Well, it serves my Doylist purpose of using up all the industrial production Nordmark can't use even better now, so whatever.

Considering that Sweden abandoned its nuclear weapons program due to excessive costs, this is not surprising at all.

Quoted from "Valles"

I admit to being a bit amused that this admittedly predictable reaction is following an action that Nordmark only took to increase its own defensive security, though.

If Russia could be assured that such weapons could and would only be used in self-defense, then Petrograd would have no cause for alarm.

Keep in mind that foreign intelligence work is divided into two parts: Capabilities and Intentions. Capabilities attempts to determine what a potential enemy can do, while Intentions tries to predict what a potential enemy will do. As Nordmark tries to acquire an atomic arms stockpile, it has raised a lot of concerns with Capabilities section. Intentions is called to offer their analysis of why atomic arms are seen to be necessary, and what Nordmark intends to do with them. This is, in fact, what the directive in my post requests from the GRU.

Russia certainly understands the allure of Nordmark building a "weak-to-strong deterrent". But Russia also believes that in such a case, the weak nuclear power shall more swiftly resort to that deterrent against larger enemies in order to overcome their disparity of forces. Thus, Russia believes that "weaker" nations with atomic arms are more apt to use them. Russia finds this alarming.

Next, Russia does not understand the Nordish 'threat analysis' that has led to the decision to create a strong-to-weak deterrent. The interpretation within Petrograd is that Nordmark is on very positive terms with Britain, Germany, and Russia, which are the only neighboring powers Nordmark cannot handily defeat using solely conventional forces. Ergo, an atomic deterrent can only be aimed at one of those three. Germany and Great Britain have been quite friendly to Nordmark for years, while Russia and Nordmark have a longstanding nonaggression treaty. Therefore, in Petrograd's eyes, the 'need' for atomic weapons indicates that Nordmark's own internal threat analyses paint a very pessimistic snapshot of the future for their international relations. Since there have been very few major changes in the political stances any of those powers, then something internal to Nordmark must be driving that dismal perception. "Might," Russia wonders, "Nordmark be preparing for something that will upset the neighborhood?" These are the questions being asked of Intentions.

Russia is operating under a particularly pessimistic timeline (or optimistic, from the Nordish point-of-view) for interpreting a Nordish atomic arms program. They've caught a few sniffs and snippets (which Valles hinted OOC might be discovered fairly early) and red flags have been raised. The GRU has almost certainly seriously overestimated how much the Nordish have accomplished and how fast they are progressing. As more information comes in, more sensible analysis will be done and the Threat Analysis could be lowered... slightly. This should become more apparent as I post more pieces in this line.

Quoted from "Brockpaine"

Next, Russia does not understand the Nordish 'threat analysis' that has led to the decision to create a strong-to-weak deterrent. The interpretation within Petrograd is that Nordmark is on very positive terms with Britain, Germany, and Russia, which are the only neighboring powers Nordmark cannot handily defeat using solely conventional forces. Ergo, an atomic deterrent can only be aimed at one of those three. Germany and Great Britain have been quite friendly to Nordmark for years, while Russia and Nordmark have a longstanding nonaggression treaty. Therefore, in Petrograd's eyes, the 'need' for atomic weapons indicates that Nordmark's own internal threat analyses paint a very pessimistic snapshot of the future for their international relations. Since there have been very few major changes in the political stances any of those powers, then something internal to Nordmark must be driving that dismal perception. "Might," Russia wonders, "Nordmark be preparing for something that will upset the neighborhood?" These are the questions being asked of Intentions.

Russia is operating under a particularly pessimistic timeline (or optimistic, from the Nordish point-of-view) for interpreting a Nordish atomic arms program. They've caught a few sniffs and snippets (which Valles hinted OOC might be discovered fairly early) and red flags have been raised. The GRU has almost certainly seriously overestimated how much the Nordish have accomplished and how fast they are progressing. As more information comes in, more sensible analysis will be done and the Threat Analysis could be lowered... slightly. This should become more apparent as I post more pieces in this line.

Heh. If it'd be useful to you, and you think it plausible, something I've been considering even before this thread is that when the time came to do so, Nordmark would 'seed' the staff group responsible for laying out nuclear targeting priorities - not the actual targets, but the principles used to assign them, and the circumstances under which they'd be used - with known foreign agents, on the theory that a vague threat is nobody's friend.

The way I'm seeing the initial doctrine - which'd assume no nukes on the other side - working out is that there'd be a hard-and-fast internal rule that nuclear strikes outside of Nordmark's own territory would be permitted only on purely military targets and only after a declared state of war that had already involved significant invasion or bombing of Nordish soil. Even in a more Cold War threat regime, hitting 'strategic' targets would be allowed only as a taking-you-with-me measure.

Either way, the main emphasis would be on figuring out how to use tactical weapons against invasion forces or fleets at sea.

Your cruise-missile submarine concept makes much more sense now you've posted this and the train of thought is obvious.
Can Nordmark affod to build the research facilities, mine and refine the fissle materials, build a warhead, test it (where?), test some more, fine tune the design, develop a weapons system concept(s) for delivery, design the bomb/missile, test said bomb/missile(s), develop launch platform(s), build launch platform, test launch platform, test all three elements combined.
That would take at least 10 years in my opinion and a lot of cash, and if the Army, Air Force and Navy all want a slice of the pie things could spiral quite quickly. Your initial cruise missile concept was quite crude (fitting with the state of development current in WW). What will equivalent concepts look like in 10 years? Without using OTL hindsight who knows, and given the development times you don't want to invest and find you field something everyone else shrugs off as outmoded and less than optimal. If you try and jump the hurdles it costs a lot and takes time. Britain's V-Force took 10 years to develop and field ,another 10 years later it was obsolete.

Interesting discussion this.

Quoted from "Hood"

Your cruise-missile submarine concept makes much more sense now you've posted this and the train of thought is obvious.
Can Nordmark affod to build the research facilities, mine and refine the fissle materials, build a warhead, test it (where?), test some more, fine tune the design, develop a weapons system concept(s) for delivery, design the bomb/missile, test said bomb/missile(s), develop launch platform(s), build launch platform, test launch platform, test all three elements combined.
That would take at least 10 years in my opinion and a lot of cash, and if the Army, Air Force and Navy all want a slice of the pie things could spiral quite quickly. Your initial cruise missile concept was quite crude (fitting with the state of development current in WW). What will equivalent concepts look like in 10 years? Without using OTL hindsight who knows, and given the development times you don't want to invest and find you field something everyone else shrugs off as outmoded and less than optimal. If you try and jump the hurdles it costs a lot and takes time. Britain's V-Force took 10 years to develop and field, another 10 years later it was obsolete.

Northern Greenland, Svalbard, and northern Norway are all sufficiently isolated to make acceptable testing sites, I'd say. Delivery platforms will, of course, remain a work-in-progress during the entire warhead program, though this very thread has refined my thinking on them and made me actively decide to avoid developing strategic-reach systems like ballistic missiles or the Tu-95-alike I'd been considering.

Cost-wise, well, yes, it's certainly going to be... substantial. But cheaper than the risk of needing to get a new country.

Nordmark has some of the best defensive territory in the world. I doubt any nation could easily conquer the whole and successfully occupy it.
I still don't see the threat. You probably have more danger of Argentina trying to invade your Southern Atlantic possessions than Britain or Germany invading the home territories.

It seems too odd banking your defence on a totally theoretical defence system, its like me ditching half the Royal Navy to research death-ray space stations. Sure the worry is there to a potential enemy but its all on the physicist's blackboard (and who really understands algebra anyway? ) What's going to deter the bad guys more, a conceptual weapon that's never been built or a fleet of costal defence ships and decent tanks and well-trained troops ? (The Belgians advice is you can never have enough concrete! )

My basic premise for building any Atomic bomb is this, is it going to be ready before the end of the sim? Most (if not all) would say the sim will be long over and we will merely be making a timeline post sim.

Quoted from "Hood"

Nordmark has some of the best defensive territory in the world. I doubt any nation could easily conquer the whole and successfully occupy it.
I still don't see the threat.

The irony is that Russia has been very strongly inclined towards a friendly relationship with Nordmark: there are too many other potential flashpoints in Asia for Petrograd to antagonize those of its neighbors who are friendly, industrious, and orderly. Now though, Nordmark's actions may result in a very strong reaction by Russia, possibly to the point of initiating their own accelerated atomic arms project. Nice job breaking it, hero!

Quoted from "Brockpaine"

Quoted from "Hood"

Nordmark has some of the best defensive territory in the world. I doubt any nation could easily conquer the whole and successfully occupy it.
I still don't see the threat.

The irony is that Russia has been very strongly inclined towards a friendly relationship with Nordmark: there are too many other potential flashpoints in Asia for Petrograd to antagonize those of its neighbors who are friendly, industrious, and orderly. Now though, Nordmark's actions may result in a very strong reaction by Russia, possibly to the point of initiating their own accelerated atomic arms project. Nice job breaking it, hero!

Please don't treat this as 'Well of course everyone knew better'.

I had no such information. I didn't have word one about Russia's viewpoints, friendliness or lackthereof, or decision making - including when I actually asked, lo, these many moons ago on first taking over Nordmark - until after I'd already made the decision to pursue nuclear armament. I guessed wrong? Sure, I'll own that. But it was a guess in absence of information, not against it.

Quoted from "Hood"

It seems too odd banking your defence on a totally theoretical defence system, its like me ditching half the Royal Navy to research death-ray space stations. Sure the worry is there to a potential enemy but its all on the physicist's blackboard (and who really understands algebra anyway? ) What's going to deter the bad guys more, a conceptual weapon that's never been built or a fleet of costal defence ships and decent tanks and well-trained troops ? (The Belgians advice is you can never have enough concrete! )

You have the order of decisions reversed. The first step was deciding to up and admit that the conventional forces to secure Nordish territory could not be manned by the Nordish population. Then the question became 'What can we do instead'?

The internal time estimates for the nuclear program are probably about the same as my own, mistaken, initial calculations.

Quoted

Nordmark's actions may result in a very strong reaction by Russia, possibly to the point of initiating their own accelerated atomic arms project. Nice job breaking it, hero!

Well, how are other nations going to react to such a project by Russia? To be honest, I would think that a reaction to a Russian Nuclear Project is going to be bigger than the Nordish Nuclear Project.

... so with Nordmark as hero, I guess in case of the Russians it is going to be "Nice job breaking it, villain!", right?


Valles, for testing sites I think that your Northern Greenland or Svalbard options are probably better than the Northern Norway, regardless of the fact that some effort is required to get to those sites, it is further away from curious foreign agents.

Quoted

Valles, for testing sites I think that your Northern Greenland or Svalbard options are probably better than the Northern Norway, regardless of the fact that some effort is required to get to those sites, it is further away from curious foreign agents.
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Hmm. Svalbard is uncomfortably close to Russia, at least in my humble opinion, and Northern Greenland would raise eyebrows (at least) in Canada.

Quoted from "Valles"

Please don't treat this as 'Well of course everyone knew better'.

I had no such information. I didn't have word one about Russia's viewpoints, friendliness or lackthereof, or decision making - including when I actually asked, lo, these many moons ago on first taking over Nordmark.

I beg to differ. I did not explicitly call out Nordmark in the discussion, but I have previously established that Russia is pro-Western yet Asia-focused, and is chiefly concerned with protecting its territorial sovereignty and those of allies. There's a nonaggression treaty currently in force. When you brought up the subject of Nordish ground forces on the IRC channel, I explicitly pointed out to you that Russia was of a friendly disposition to Nordmark (whereupon you expressed surprise and indicated you were going to revise your plans to account for it). And back in 1935, the Russians supported Nordish efforts to diplomatically solve the Wilno Affair.

At the risk of being petty, I'd like to point out that's a heck of a lot more than we've ever seen about Nordish viewpoints and decision-making - from you or any other Nordish player.

Quoted from "Rooijen10"

Quoted

Nordmark's actions may result in a very strong reaction by Russia, possibly to the point of initiating their own accelerated atomic arms project. Nice job breaking it, hero!

Well, how are other nations going to react to such a project by Russia? To be honest, I would think that a reaction to a Russian Nuclear Project is going to be bigger than the Nordish Nuclear Project.

This is a valid point; it's one of the things Russia has to weigh before they make any sort of decision.

Quoted

Hmm. Svalbard is uncomfortably close to Russia, at least in my humble opinion, and Northern Greenland would raise eyebrows (at least) in Canada.

True, if the Russians know about it. But even if they did, Svalbard is nowhere near as close to Russia as Northern Norway and it is probably much easier to get agents into Northern Norway than it is to get them into Svalbard. One can walk into Norway whereas with Svalbard you would have to insert agents by submarine as a surface vessel would easily be spotted from far away.

The Canadian issue is a good one. Considering that Nordmark controls Vinland, should the Canadians find out what is happening in Northern Greenland, one could easily expect a reaction (not just raised eyebrows) in the form of Canadian Super Science! (tm)...

Tu-4K Reaches the Fleet
Sailors and officers of the Military-Maritime Fleet of the Russian Federation! In a flyby for the photographers of our national press, the naval aviators of the heavy aircraft cruiser Afonskoye triumphantly revealed their new Tupolev Tu-4Ks, the finest new ship-based strike aircraft now in service in the navies of the world! [1]

Maksimov Visits Baku and Ganja, Proposes Azeri Unification
In conference with Azeri president Rasim Salayev in Ganja, Minister of Foreign Affairs Maksimov proposed a plan to unify the Federated Republic of Azerbaijan (part of the Russian Federation) with the Democratic Republic of Azerbaijan. The details of Minister Maksimov's plan have not been released to the press at the present time, although it is known that Minister Maksimov invited the Democratic Republic to vote to join the Federated Republic of Azerbaijan.

Petrograd Elections
A motion to change the city of Petrograd's name back to Sankt-Peterburg narrowly failed to pass in the May municipal elections, with approximately 53% of voters against the name change. Opponents of the change claimed that 'Sankt-Peterburg' sounded too German, while 'Petrograd' sounded more appropriately Russian. However, voters did approve an expensive flood-control dam designed to prevent catastrophic floods from damaging the city. Construction of the vast new structure will begin in 1947, with an expected completion date of 1958.

Richter, Losev Honored
President Fyodorov awarded the State Prize of the Russian Federation to virtuoso pianist Sviatoslav Richter for his contribution to the field of arts within the Russian Federation, while Oleg Losev was awarded in the field of science for his 1927 invention of the light-emitting diode.

Zenit Continues Deployment Abroad; Rostislav Nears Completion
The seaplane carrier Zenit, assigned to the Northern Fleet, has finished a stint in the French port of Brest where he underwent conversion into an experimental vessel. According to foreign sources, the Zenit has been converted to mount an experimental radio-detection and fire control system of French design. The conversion has been paid for by the French Navy, which lacked a suitable ship for the desired experimental purposes. With Zenit's conversion completed, he has joined the French Navy's Atlantic Fleet for three months while testing the new electronic systems.

Meanwhile, the fast lineship Rostislav is approaching completion at pierside in Petrograd. A spokesman for the VMF Rossii said that the new capital ship would be completed before October 1st of this year. Captain First Rank Vladimir Novikov, the current commander of the Black Sea Fleet lineship Poltava, has been appointed as his first commander. The remaining three ships in Rostislav's class - the Potemkin, Georgii Pobedonosets, and Retvizan - are also expected to complete before the end of the year. The Admiralty confirmed that crews for the four new vessels would be drawn from the two Sevastopol-class and four Imperitritsa Mariya-class vessels, strengthening rumors that these old warships may soon be retired.

Mariinsk Canal Reconstruction Completes
Reconstruction work completed in June on the Mariinsk Canal project. The reconstruction allows for a substantial increase in the size of maritime traffic upon this vital Russian internal waterway. Dredges deepened many key channels, and locks were rebuilt to accommodate vessels of nearly oceanic size. [2]

Pioneering A New Age of Russian Aviation!
The prototype twin-engine jet fighter I-300 achieved its first flight on April 24th of this year, taking off from Ramenskoye airfield for a flight lasting six minutes. The I-300, designed by Armenian native Artem Mikoyan, is the first jet aircraft of solely Russian origin to fly, although several jets of German and French manufacture have previously been seen at Lipetsk and Ramenskoye. According to an official press report released the day after the flight, the I-300 prototype performed adequately, although certain technical issues were noted that shall require resolution.

In other news, Aeroflot accepted the new Beriev Be-4 flying boat for mail and passenger service in the Siberia and the Russian Far East. The new aircraft is powered by a pair of turboprop engines, operating on similar principles to the turbojet engine used by the I-300, developed by Tumansky and the French firm of Turbomeca. The successful creation and adoption of this engine demonstrates that the Russian Federation remains a noteworthy leader in the advancement of the cutting edge of aviation!



Note [1]: Actually, as of 1946, the Tu-4K has teething troubles with its special engine. If you'd like to hear about the "Heroes of Russian Labour", talk to the engineers and mechanics who somehow managed to get six air-worthy aircraft available at the same time in order for them to be displayed to the press. Given the readiness rating of his new attack squadron, you can imagine that the regiment commander embarked aboard Afonskoye isn't too happy and would like his old slow Sukhoi Su-4s back, thankyouverymuch.
Note [2]: Dimensions on the Mariinsk are as follows:
---- Old Baltic-Volga (Mariinsk) Max: 115 m (377 ft) long, 15 m (49 ft) wide, 3.4 m (11 ft) deep
---- New Baltic-Volga (Mariinsk) Max: 210 m long, 17.6 m wide, 4.2 m deep

Quoted

In a flyby for the photographers of our national press, the naval aviators of the heavy aircraft cruiser Afonskoye triumphantly revealed their new Tupolev Tu-4Ks

A flyby for the photographers... and no photos of the plane posted? I guess that the Tu-4K is just as real as Japan's Mekajiki.

Quoted

the finest new ship-based strike aircraft now in service in the navies of the world!

I think other nations might agree if stats and a picture were posted. On the other hand nations may strongly disagree upon seeing stats and a picture with the Russian claim...

Quoted

Opponents of the change claimed that 'Sankt-Peterburg' sounded too German

See Bruce! It's not just the Belgians. The Russians have a problem with the Germans as well. It's not the all out paranoia of the Belgians but it is going into that direction.